The Option Pricing Based Stock Forecasting

The derivative tools have played a very important role in modern financial markets. The Option Pricing method was analyzed in the first place, how to determine the market value of the company and the volatility of company's current market value is very important for accurate option pricing,, volatility is the evaluation of the extent of the changes for the underlying asset. There is many factors affect the rate of fluctuation of uncertainty so that the volatility is a variable volatility, and changes randomly. The estimation method for the volatility can not effectively reflect the risk of price, the forecasting volatility is used to substitute the realized volatility so that it can externalize the risk better. The accuracy of the present forecasting method can not be satisfied. An improved Support Vector Machine based on chaotic phase space reconstruction theory is proposed to forecast the volatility, the forecasting results show that it has high accuracy.