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Study On Zhengzhou Airport Logistics Demand Forecasting Based On Support Vector Machine

Posted on:2015-07-21Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:Z P JiaFull Text:PDF
GTID:2309330467976079Subject:Logistics engineering
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
Along with the deep development of economic globalization and China’sregional economic cooperation and exchanges to deeper and broader leveldevelopment, the aviation logistics has become a new growth point of thedevelopment of the logistics in China, aviation logistics has become a drag onconstruction and development of regional economy and an important force indeveloping high-end economy. Under this background, the positive of the cities toformulate logistics development planning, to develop the airport logistics. Airportlogistics demand forecasting is the precondition of airport logistics development, isalso the foundation of aviation port planning and construction, so the air port logisticsdemand forecasting has very important theoretical and practical significance.This article will use the combination of theory and empirical methods, introducesthe relevant theories of logistics demand forecasting, this paper analyses the feature ofthe zhengzhou air port logistics demand, put forward the ideas, the paper forecastanalysis the influence factors of forecast target, select support vector machine (SVM)model is established, on the zhengzhou aviation goods in the port throughput forecast,and comparing the predicted results with other methods of prediction, prove theaccuracy of the prediction results. Finally, according to the goods or the throughputand the ratio between the various logistics links work relations, calculate the storagequantity and distribution of predicted value, then put the goods or the amount ofthroughput, storage and distribution forecast totted up, it is concluded that zhengzhouair port logistics demand forecast of the total, and carries on the analysis, pointed outthe development trend of the future. The main contents are as follows:First of all, this article summarizes the domestic and foreign research status quoof logistics demand forecasting and support vector machine (SVM), points out itsexisting problems, and expounds the significance of logistics demand forecastingresearch; Secondly, this paper introduces some relevant theories of logistics demand forecasting, through comparing several kinds of commonly used logistics demandforecasting method, choose the support vector machine (SVM) method for studyingthe text of the forecast; again, to zhengzhou aviation port logistics demandcharacteristics were analyzed, and put forward the ideas, this paper predicts andanalyzes the influence factors of prediction target; Then, the design and establish thesupport vector machine forecasting model, a simple introduction of MATLABsoftware and LIBSVM toolbox, and gives the corresponding function interfaces andconcrete implementation code; Finally, through the support vector machineforecasting model, the next three years goods to zhengzhou aviation port throughputforecast, forecast results, and compared with other methods of prediction result, provethe accuracy of the prediction results. Analysis of the logistics links with the goods orthe proportion of the relationship between throughput, based on goods or throughput,calculate the logistics links the work (e.g., storage, distribution, quantity), finally tozhengzhou air port and sum total throughput, storage and distribution come tozhengzhou air port logistics demand amount, and the prediction results were analyzed.
Keywords/Search Tags:Airport Comprehensive Economic Experimental Zone, AirportLogistics, Logistics demand forecasting, Support vector machine
PDF Full Text Request
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