Problem Research And Demonstration Analysis On The Bullwhip Effect In Supply Chain

Due to the drastic market competition, supply chain management now plays an important role in assisting companies to gain competitive advantage. So the problem of supply chain management becomes a popular problem and bullwhip effect becomes a main problem during the process of implementation of supply chain management.Bullwhip effect is the phenomenon of demand fluctuation from downstream to upstream along supply chain, it means the variation of order of upstream is bigger than downstream. Bullwhip effect causes shortage gaming, delivery delay and customer requirements loss that makes supply chain out of balance, seriously affects the operation of supply chain. It bases on combination of qualitative and quantitative methods and uses theory of economics, mathematics to study the problems of bullwhip effect.Firstly, this thesis introduces the basic concepts of supply chain management. Secondly, it analyses the uncertainty of supply chain which called bullwhip effect. It analyses its phenomenon, harm and effective control methods. Thirdly, it analyses the mechanism that bullwhip effect form with qualitative method to educe the factors which bullwhip effect brings. It also analyses bullwhip effect with quantitative method, summarizes the phase that bullwhip effect brings and has a brief introduction of the analytical method for the next chapter. Finally, it has a demonstration analysis of the data of sales of one machine tool fitting company, analyses the demand of the company. It also forecasts the demand model with one exponential smoothing method and tests that supply chain which the company in has bullwhip effect. It brings the problem that in the company according to the data and summarizes the solution of that is setting up an information integration system in the supply chain and production management system with the information sharing method and vendor-managed inventory method.