Study On Formation Mechanism And Weakening Measure Of Bullwhip Effect In Supply Chain

Firms have gradually realized that competition is the competition as part of one supply chain against other supply chains,rather than as a single firm against other individual firms since the 21st century.It brings a new problem for the supply chain management.Supply chain management has been the most important subject all over the world. Bullwhip Effect (a phenomenon of demand variability amplification) is a relatively unique phenomenon in the supply chain management,which is very disadvantageous to the supply chain management. Therefore, studying and analysing the bullwhip effect can improve the whole supply chain performance and reduce supply chain inventory and cost.This paper mainly studies the causes and bad effect of bullwhip effect,quantizes the bullwhip effect and proposes some measures of weakening the bullwhip effect by adopting the method of combining qualitative and quantitative research and applying the related theories of management,systems engineering,game theory,principal-agent,etc.This paper mainly includes six parts as follows:(1) Introduces research background,research significance,research status both abroad and at home,research methods and research ideas.(2) Overlines the related theories of supply chain and the bullwhip effect.(3) Analyses the causes of the bullwhip effect from multiple angles and interpretes the root cause from the economic point of view:the game process due to incomplete and asymmetric information and unreasonable contract between suppliers, manufacturers, distributors,and retailers (principal-agent relationship).Then analyses the bullwhip effect's bad effect on supply chain.(4) Quantizes and imitates the bullwhip effect by Beer Distribution Game Model and Two-stage Supply Chain Model. Beer distribution game model can qualitatively analyse the existence of bullwhip effect, Two-stage Supply Chain Model can not only qualitatively analyse of the bullwhip effect, but also quantize it.Ultimately we can get the bullwhip effect expression under certain preconditions.We can prove that bullwhip effect really exists in supply chain by the analysis of the above two models and quantize bullwhip effect under certain preconditions.(5) Proposes some measures of weakening bullwhip effect from multiple angles and establishs a supply chain model to verify the effectiveness of weakening bullwhip effect by Vendor Managed Inventory.(6) Analyses the causes of the Wal-Mart supply chain's bullwhip effect and the measures of weakening bullwhip effect.