The Research On Forecasting Model Of Financial Crisis Basing On Listed Companies

Financial crisis is a kind of economic phenomenon, which means that companies are unable to pay the due debt or the expenses including from fund manage technical failure to bankrupt or various kinds of situations between the two. With the constant development of the capital market in our country, the constant perfection of the information announcing system of listed company, implemented special treatment with the gradual increase of listed company, the administrators of enterprises, creditors, investors and auditors, etc. to appraise financial situation, operation of enterprise have important meaning to predict in time. This paper is on the basis of former studies, choosing principle of the sample, index variable choose, financial crisis leading, etc. respect of forecasting model innovate to some extent. It choose 56 financial crisis companies implemented special treatment for the first time in 2006 and 56 paired non-financial crisis companies as sample of estimating, using multi-variable analytical methods, utilize the financial data in the financial statement that the listed company has already been audited, choose 18 index variables which contain the financial situation of listed company of various fields, choose 5 index variables from it, adopt regression of binary logistic to structure a forecasting model which is more effectively and stronger predicted ability. Then choose 24 financial crisis companies that is with special, treatment for the first time in 2005 and 24 paired non-financial crisis companies as examining sample to examine the model's correct rate. The forecasting model of financial crisis indicates that the model can finely forecast to take place the possibility of financial crisis within three years in the future, the correct rate examined finally is up to 93.8%.The last part gives some suggestions on how to carry out the forecasting model for financial distress of Chinese listed company.