The Empirical Research On Applicability Of Financial Crisis Forecasting To The Real Estate Listed Companies In China

In recent years, the real estate industry of China has had a very rapid development. As one of the pillar industries of the national economy, the real estate industry has played a key role in modern social and economic life. The asset size of the real estate industry growth is becoming faster in our country. At the same time, the macro control of real estate industry is strengthening. This makes the financial crisis in real estate industry gradually increase. To monitor the financial crisis of the real estate has an important meaning of both fact and research.Based on of summarizing the research of domestic and foreign results, combined with analysis of the current situation in China's real estate enterprise, this article aims at finding the domestic applicability of the Crisis-Forecasting-System Model.On the basis of financial reports of the late three years, this article firstly analyses the domestic applicability of Z-Score Model. The result indicated that Z-Score Model is not very feasible. Therefore, a Crisis-Forecasting-System Model, the Logistic Regression Model is established. And this Logistic Regression Model is valuable to some extent. Moreover, the real estate's financial report of 2009 has also been analysed by this model for further research.