Study On International Capital Effection Factors,the Channels And Countermeasures Under The Background Of Exchange Of RMB Gradually Free

Under the background of economic globalization and financial liberalization,the international capital is very important to the development of many countries.The measures of financial liberalization include the release of use of money, broad or deregular the foreign exchange control, allow exchange of money free,allow movement of capital across border,set up financial market at home,built off-shore financial center etc. It dismantals the barriers which separate the financial market from each other, makes the domestic financial market open to the world,boosts the development of transaction of money across border.But international capital is a kopis. The breakage of the amphitryon is very great,when the international capital flows out the economic system quickly. And many countries have very profound lessons. Due to the great uncertainty of international economic environment, China's fragile banking system and the unsound economic structure, China's "double surplus" is very weak, the short-term debt which has bad stability also increased quickly,so under the background of increasement of exchangeRMB,a large scale of international capital may flow out quiclly.United Nations United Nations ESCAP recently released annual report pointed out that despite the region's economy has developed rapidly and However, the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis suffered heavy losses during the four Asian countries—Indonesia, South Korea, Thailand and the Philippines may again be faced with a sudden outflow of capital caused by the currency-crisis. Although the report did not directly mention the possibility of impact, but we can also imagine that if the four countries affected. Our country will also come under great pressure!The paper reviews the theory of international capital flows first,and then analyses the various aspects of the impact when the international capital rapidly outflow from the host country,and this study highlights the importance of international capital rapid outflow. Using the economics and finance in particular the basic principle of international finance and the basic model, learns the experiences and lessons of the emerging markets ,associates China's financial system, international capital flows territoriality, deadlines, and the specific form of volatility, analyzing the associated data,we study the possibility of China's rapid outflow of international capital deeply. The paper educes that the possibility of rapid international capital outflow from our country will continue to increase. We also use standard time series econometric model to be interpreted as a long-term investment and non - FDI variables, a state credit rating (rate of foreign debt as sttate credit rate),the rate of GDP in our country,CPI in our country, the United States Federal interest rates, the 10-year treasury bond interest rate of the United States and capital account openness as the explanatory variable. Analysis of ideas for the following factors : according to the interest rate parity theory,the relative changes in the interest rate will cause capital flows; As for the anticipation, the government's intervention is expected. This will cause short-term capital flows have excessive debt, therefore has a big risk; According to game theory, rational expectations theory, if a strong national reputation, then public confidence is strong and the possibility of strike by short-term capital is small; The higher degree of capital account liberalization, the smaller the cost of international capital flow out of the country,then conducive to the flow of international capital. Positive outcome : Federal interest rates and the degree of capital accounts openness have significant impact on international capital outflow. The implications are : the United States federal government should be paid careful attention to the changes of the interest rates and steadily opening up of China's capital account. The article also sorts out our existing international legal capital outflow channels, analyzes illegal channels of the international capital outflow, and the amount of flow-out capital from each channel is generally were estimated. The article finds that the channels of trade in services in the number of capital outflow has been increased, Capital projects under financial securities investment growth rate soon, the number of the inflow and outflow capital from illegal channels is very huge, the promulgation of the "Anti-Money Laundering Act" will effectively combat illegal capital outflow. Finally, the article also raised the corresponding countermeasures.