The Quantity Sizing And The Research Of The Regulation Policy Of The Short-term International Capital Flow Of China

From the angles of the size and structure of the international capital flow, the channels of the international capital flow and the development of capital regulation policy, this paper try to analyze the capital flow itself, history of China’s capital regulation, present situation and the existing problems. In addition, trying to put forward policy suggestions to solve these problems.With the process of economic globalization and financial liberalization, short-term international capital flows have been playing a more and more important role, and promoted the rapid development of the trend. Chinese government began to replace the strict capital controls, making the foreign investors put money into the Chinese stock market and other financial markets. More precisely, China’s state administration of foreign exchange has already started to relax the limitation on the qualified foreign institutional investors’ capital, with a more open attitude to meet overseas enterprises institutions to invest in China’s securities market. In recent years, with the strong RMB appreciation expectations, large speculative foreign capital into China, the regulation of international capital flow in our country put forward the new challenges. How much is our country’s scale of international capital flow in recent years? Our country regulation to short-term capital flows is effective or not? These are problems worthy of thinking deeply, which is this paper’s meaning. In the literature review part, first of all, the concept of short-term internationalcapital flows is defined from the perspective of its variability and speculative. The so-called short-term international capital flow refers to the territory of a country’s account in all possible capital directions change in a year. Secondly, through a wide range of relevant literatures, the analysis of previous studies about the scale of international capital flow measure analysis, summarizes various scholars point of view, this paper has found that most scholars adopt similar estimation method. At the same time, they try to meet their own needs and the size of the actual situation of (?) short-term international capital flows to improve their own measure method. These very measures of short-term international capital flows can be classified into the net direct investment adjustment method, direct method and indirect method, Morgan, Klein and Dolly method. Through the measurement of various measures, we believe the short-term international capital flows should follow the idea of the indirect method, and there is necessary adjustment according to the specific situation.After the estimation method is determined, the second chapter through to estimate our country every quarter’s scale of international short-term capital flows from1998to2012. According to the result, there is indeed a big volatility of international capital flow and frequent discrepancy. Moreover, the capital flow of China mainly included the inflows of capital flows, but there is a sudden outflow, such as flow lines reached166billion dollars in2012. Based on the estimated results also found that since the first quarter of2005, China’s international capital flows present obvious periodicity.The third chapter analyzes the recessive short-term capital flows. The recessive capital flows from either the current account or the capital account has been analyzed. The current account aspect analyzes the trade misrepresenting, advance payment and payment on deferred terms, cross-border related party transactions and other non-trade channels which may be hidden in short-term capital flows;the capital aspect analyzes the capital flow in foreign direct investment, the short-term capital flows of short-term foreign debt and illegal ways. In addition to using the selected method to estimate short-term capital flows in our country, this paper estimate size of misrepresenting the annual trade in our country from1998to2012. With the estimated result, this paper has finished the analysis the scale of recessive capital flows and its influence on China’s international capital flow regulation, found that before2006the trade false claim is mainly for international capital inflows and then gradually turns into the international capital means of escaping. The regulatory policy should be fully considered the change.Through the study of China’s capital control policy, this paper finds that there some problems that exist in our country such as bull regulation, low efficiency and high cost of regulation and the unsound legal system and so on. Finally, this article puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations in view of the problems found through the research. The regulation in the short term capital is necessary, but policies must meet the needs of the development of the situation in order to establish perfect international capital flow early warning system.