A Study On Engineering Period Risk Of Entropy Theory

Progress control is one of the three greatest controls in the engineering project management. It is very important to control the progress well. If the progress lose control, it will cause waste of resources and economies lose by all means, even may affect the engineering quantity and safety.However, during the item, the work project will be affected by the various indeterminated factors inevitably, thus causing engineering postpone,and the risk that the progress target fail.There are many the methods of progress control, and the PERT is common one. It is the key for engineering process control to settle the process time, but the PERT assumes the process time obeysβdistribution or two point equal probability distribution, and this assumption affects the accuracy of project plan.Firstly, inquiry into the maximum entropy principle and the complicated degree theory, lead them into the engineering item management, study the process time about an indeterminated network plan technique from the research angle of entropy theory. Apply the maximum entropy principle to built up the project process control model about the maximum entropy, and solve probability distributi about the process time of the PERT by the builded modle. After probability distribution about the process time, predict completion rate of the work process in the required time.Furtherly, investigate how to improve the accuracy of the traditional PERT assurance center path by the entropy principle. Apply the complicated degree theories, and divide the center pathes into a few different risk grades, and judge the risk degree of the pathes, thus find out the point circuit during the construction. Finally, taking ChangZhou water vital point engineering as an example, make use of the project process control model of the maximum entropy to settle probability density function about the process time and study construction work period, and prove that the entropy theory has the good function and maneuverabilities in work project control. Studing the entroy theories in the filed of the engineering project process control,provide a new method for the progress control------the greated entropy method. This willperfect to some extent our country engineering item management theories, also has certainly draw lessons in the fulfillment.