Statistical Studying Of The "Policy Stock Market" Of The Chinese Stock Market

The growth and development of China stock market is in the guide and promote of government, but in the process, The government's frequent use of various policy tools to control the stock market to achieve its own policy goals.This has resulted the phenomenon of"the policy stock market"in the China stock market, therefore,"the policy stock market"has been one of the basic characteristics of China stock markets, and this is a fundamental point of view in this paper. However,the exist of "policy stock market " in the stock market has caused great harm.First, the " policy stock market " weakens the function of the stock market information dissemination and resource allocation.Second, the " policy stock market" fuels speculation in the stock market, it also hindered the formation of a proper investment philosophy of investors,and cause investors to excessively reliance on the policies control,in the market which is not conducive to truly implement the principle of caveat emptor market and cultivate the right idea. Third, " policy stock market " against the value of the investment.Fourth, the " policy stock market" increasing the cost of government policy.Fifth, "policy stock market" in the process of China's economic reform.Although China stock market in the special stage had made contributions to the Chinese economy,because the exist of " policy stock market "phenomenon,China stock market has not given full function of "effective allocation of resources for economic development services",on the country's economic development, China stock market has become a bottleneck restricting the development, therefore,Study on China stock market, " policy stock market " is not only of theoretical significance, and of great practical significance.Based on a thorough understanding the phenomenon of "policy stock market " of China stock market, and then use ARCH model and theory of structure breaks to study the China stock market, in the end,from a quantitative point of view that the China stock market is a " policy stock market". On this basis,the article further study the cause of "policy stock market ".Thesis is divided into four parts.The first part descript the means and the basic characteristics of the China stock market. The second part use the ARCH models to analysis the impacts on fluctuations of the China stock market, by comparing various types of ARCH models,The article finally chosen CGARCH model to study relationd...