The Research On Decision-making Of The Best Investment Opportunity Based On Real Option

Option is a choice, real option are right which have characters of option and exist in the real assets, it has been applied in many economy field widely, could help certain investment strategy investment opportunity and investment technique. It could complement and revise classical evaluation methods for investment decisions overlooked the cost of management flexibility, when an investment stands alone the ground evaluation, it is uneconomical. Investor could invest during the market beneficial time, in order to make the future's latent income biggest or the lose minimum. The research to the real option approach has entered to extend the applied stage on aboard, but local of the research is just start, The thesis is a beneficial study towards the real option approach, being used in how to choice investment opportunity.This thesis reviews the methods of traditional investment assessment and decision theory and its application to risk investment project assessment and decision. Secondly, it points out that because of having not taken irreversibility, time selectivity and decision flexibility of risk investment into account, the traditional investment assessment methods neglect the value of uncertainty which embeds in risk investment project. Lastly, it attempts managing risk management from an option viewpoint, and well grapples with problem of uncertainty in risk investment project. This thesis attempts importing real option theory and method to risk investment assessment and decision, Proves the real option specialty of risk investment, then interprets its applicability for risk investment assessment and decision, and divides the real option into different types according to the characteristics of high risk, high win and grading injection of fund of risk investment project. And this thesis makes sure of the applicability and feasibility of the theory for risk investment decision in China by comparing the theory to the traditional one. On this base this thesis designs the process of the best investment opportunity decision using real option theory and method, builds a model of the best investment opportunity decision assessment based on real option theory.Based on the academic achievements in the real option theory, decision-makers...