Research On Investing Opportunity Of Pharmaceutical Project Based On The Theory Of Real Option

For the pharmaceutical project, it has characteristic of long investment cycle, investment irreversibility, and generally long investment scale, and the investment process is fraught with uncertainties. Investors should pay attention to the infulence of these uncertainties in the investment process.In order to ensure the effect of pharmaceutical project investment, project investment analysis affecting pharmaceutical uncertainties, as well as opportunities for investment under uncertainty studies on the formation of rational investment decisions have a major impact.Based on the theory of real option, this article has systematically studied the investment opportunity for pharmaceutical projects. The corresponding model under conditions of market demand uncertainty and both the income and technical uncertainty was constructed, and numerical analysis of such model was conducted by using MATLAB. Meanwhile, and this paper’s theory was verified by the practical example.The main research work is reflected in the following aspects:(1)The characteristics of the pharmaceutical investment projects were analyzed. Based on a comparative analysis of traditional decision making method and real share option method, we summarized the advantages and disadvantages of each method. And according to the characteristics of pharmaceutical investment program, we discussed the pharmaceutical project’s characteristics of real option and types of real option.(2)This thesis built the best time of the pharmaceutical investment decision model under conditions of market demand uncertainty and both the income and technical uncertainty, and analyzed each model’s parameters.(3)With the example of ShengHui company’s pharmaceutical project, we study the medical project by the proposed theory and method, the empirical results show that under the influence of demand uncertainty in the market, the value of the project will reduce after the price controls, but it wouldn’t change the original investment rules. In considering the impact of technological uncertainty and earnings uncertainty, we analyze price determination, technological progress and the overall decline in the cost of investment, the value of the project will rise under the two effects, it would change the original investment rules. There are19graphics,7charts and73references in this paper.