Research On Influence Mechanism Of Annual Earnings Predictability Of Listed Companies By Voluntary Accounting Changes

Voluntary accounting policy change and Earnings Forecasts is among the core content of the research of positive accounting theory. Ever since the emergence of effective market hypothesis (EPH) and capital asset pricing model (CAPM), lots of fruitful studies have been made by overseas accounting scholars. However, to a large extent, these studies neglected the inherent characteristics of countries in economic transformation. Therefore, the aim to explain and predict the accounting practice of countries in economic transformation could not be reached. Based on the above mentioned reason, a series of theoretic and practical problems of long-time earnings forecasts, management earnings forecasts, analyst forecasts and market response of earnings forecasts error were discussed in this paper by methods of theoretic analysis and empirical testing. Then, theoretic support and policy suggestions were provided for the supervision of stock market of Chinese listed companies.Firstly, Based on the introduction & review of the theoretic controversy among selective inauthentic financial disclosure hypothesis, enterprise contract theory, economic consequence theory, non-effect hypothesis and mechanicalness hypothesis and earnings forecast theory, the relationship among above mentioned theories(or theoretic hypothesis), earnings forecast information and voluntary accounting policy change were discussed. Then, the conceptional framework concerning voluntary accounting policy change was discussed by normative approach. Pertinent institutional background of voluntary accounting policy change of Chinese listed companies and the theory of earnings forecast was analyzed. The framework of the following chapters which were mainly concerned about positive analysis was constructed.Empirical Test is the core of this paper. First, though sieving research sample, and find the companies'behaviors of the income smoothing, huge amount of write off, induced by policy and normal accounting change, then class them into four groups . voluntary accounting changes with those characteristic are whether affect the long-term earnings change sign by runs test. Results suggest: For the long run, malice accounting changes include huge amount of write-off or induced by policy-based factors , those company haven't the random of earnings fluctuation, thus that changes its long-term year earnings predictability; But the general accounting changes include the income smoothing and normal change, the earnings forecast signs of those company have the...