Research On The Impact Of Macroeconomic Uncertainty On Voluntary Earnings Forecast

Historical accounting information,which has high accuracy,is a record of economic events that have occurred,but it has a little relevance to investors' decision.Predictive accounting information is a prediction made in the case of a reasonable estimation of the company's future operating conditions,so it is more relevant to the decisions investors made in the future.Voluntary earnings forecast is a way of transferring company information to investors.On the one hand,it can help investors reduce the transaction costs to obtain relevant information.On the other hand,it can increase the transparency and reputation of company information,expand the source of corporate funds,and reduce corporate costs and litigation risk.Investors can also make more accurate judgments and decisions based on forecasts issued by the company.At the same time,voluntary earnings forecast shows management's expectations of future earnings,understanding of the company's economic environment,and ability to predict future business prospects,which are important factors to consider when investors make investment decisions.As micro-economic entities,all enterprises are inevitable to be affected by the macro economy in the economic market.Enterprises operate in the economic market,so its business model,financing activities,investment activities,capital costs,capital structure and profitability will all be affected by macroeconomic uncertainties.Therefore,it will increase difficulties for management to make accurate earnings forecasts at this time.As what has say above,it is of great practical significance to combine macro economy with micro-economic enterprises to study the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on voluntary earnings forecast.This can provide a new perspective for corporate information users: investors can combine with the macroeconomic environment to study the earnings forecast issued by the company's management,and then decide on their own investment decisions.This paper is mainly based on information asymmetry theory,signaling theory and economic cycle theory,and mainly studies four aspects: the impact of macroeconomic uncertainties on the willingness to release voluntary earnings forecast,the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on the frequency of voluntary earnings forecast,the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on the accuracy of voluntary earnings forecast and the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on the nature of news transferred by the voluntary earnings forecast(Good?Bad and Neutral).In the further research,the paper has examined the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on the market reactions to different news transferred by thevoluntary earnings forecast.The first is theoretical analysis,which provides theoretical support to study this paper by sorting out related literature on voluntary earnings forecast at home and abroad,and then puts forward research hypotheses based on summarizing relevant literature.The next part is empirical research,the paper chooses 2010-2017A-share listed companies' voluntary earnings forecast in China as research sample to do the empirical test,and then uses STATA14.0 statistical software to process data,puts forward hypotheses,set up testing models and selects the key variables that meet the paper.Panel data fixed effect model,logit model,and event study method are used for regression analysis to empirically test the impact of macroeconomic uncertainties on the willingness to release voluntary earnings forecast,the frequency of voluntary earnings forecast,the accuracy of voluntary earnings forecast,the nature of news transferred by the voluntary earnings forecast(Good?Bad and Neutral)and different market reactions to different news,transferred by the voluntary earnings forecast.Finally,the paper analyzes the empirical results and make relevant recommendations.The result of research shows:(1)When the macroeconomic uncertainty is higher,the willingness to release voluntary earnings forecast is lower;(2)When the macroeconomic uncertainty is higher,the frequency to release voluntary earnings forecast is lower;(3)When the macroeconomic uncertainty is higher,the accuracy of voluntary earnings forecast is lower;(4)When the macroeconomic uncertainty is higher,the management is inclined to release Bad voluntary earnings forecasts(Neutral voluntary earnings forecasts);(5)When the macroeconomic uncertainty is higher,the market will react more strongly to Bad voluntary earnings forecast than Neutral and Good voluntary earnings forecasts.The mainly innovation of this paper is to study the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on the disclosure of voluntary earnings forecast,which can enrich the theory of combining macro economy and micro-enterprises behaviors,and at the same time provide a new perspective for investors to analyze the voluntary earnings forecast released by management.The next innovation is to analyze the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on the disclosure of voluntary earnings forecast through three dimensions: publishing?the nature of voluntary earnings forecast and the reaction of market,which forms a complete research system.