A Study On The Decision Of China's Outward Direct Investment Under Uncertainty

Nowadays the investment situation of enterprises has become more uncertain than before under the influence of the economy integration, the development of technology and the fluctuation of oil price. Compared with internal investment outward direct investment will face a more complicated environment and cause higher risks. The China's outward direct investment is developing very fast. It is a valuable subject to reduce risks of outward direct investment under high uncertainty. The paper will try to discuss the decision of China's outward direct investment under uncertainty with the idea of option referring to recent theory of flexible decision of investment.The results of some fields are adopted to introduce delayability and reversibility in the paper with taking uncertainty as exogenous variable. The paper analyses the decision of China's outward direct investment under uncertainty from both macro-level and micro-level. Firstly, some quantitative models are established to confirm the optimal timing of outward direct investment. Secondly, it generalizes the current stage of China's outward direct investment in macro level according to the regression analysis of trend. Thirdly, the motivation and advantage of China's outward direct investment is analysed in detail. Then it discusses the decision of China's outward direct investment in textile industry especially. At last some measures are proposed on the basis of results.