Research On The Investment Risk Source Analysis

This article is for the research of methodology and it try to base the risk analysis on the risk sources. Obviously the investment risk source analysis which is raised by this article belongs to the range of risk analysis.People need to understand investment risk in order to enhance their domination on it when they make decisions about investment. So people put forward many ways of risk analysis. These ways are based on the factors including price, sales volume, cost etc, which can influence the investment benefit directly. We call these factors"middle variables"in this article.Though the research based on middle variables is direct, succinct and easy to understand, it can not give us more information about where the risks come from and what they actually are. In fact, the middle variables are not the ultimate sources of risk because they are influenced by the risk source which is more basic than middle variables.Thus this article try to change the foundation of risk analysis from middle variables to the risk sources behind middle variables. Though this change we can understand more about the essence of risk happening and raise better measures for risk control.The risk source analysis mainly include: (1)risk sources'sensitivity analysis to the middle variables; (2) risk sources'sensitivity analysis to the investment benefit; (3)estimate of the actual threat of risk sources.