The Study Of The Method Of Item Risk Estimation Based On Sensitivity Analysis

The investment has the certain risk, this is a basic general knowledge. Along with our country socialist market economy system further consummation, investment already spread the social economy life each quoin. The economic efficiency of each investment project not only relates investor's direct benefit, moreover also relates the entire social productive forces, the social resources effective disposition and reasonable use question. The project risk assessment is an essential decision-making procedure to precisely comply with this kind needs.This article first introduce development course of the project risk assessment theory, in the foundation of summarizing each kind of project risk assessment method good and bad points, elaborate the article research basic point - tradition sensitivity analysis principle and the good and bad points, summarize the present subjective probability and the objective probability still have the deficiency to its improvement, obtain the conclusion that the improvement sensitive analysis still is the qualitative analysis. Then the article draws out the Bayes method's application in the project risk assessment, prominent Bayes method's characteristic which it can unify the sample information with the prior probability , and the superiority which it is easy to do dynamic appraisal to project risk factor. Finally in the real estate project case analysis, separately use the traditional sensitivity analysis as well as its improvement method and Bayes method carry on the appraisal to the project risk according to the level, help the investment policy-maker to find the true susceptibility factor of influencing project, cause the investment policy-maker to quota dynamic monitor change of the susceptibility factor, confirm multi- methods union superiority in the project risk assessment.