Empirical Study On The Influence Of The Chinese Exchange Rate Institution To The Total Output

The relations between exchange rate system and the total output are took between one kind of exchange rate system and the economical achievements relations, the research goal is how the different national exchange rate system act to the different economical total quantity, and appraises the exchange rate system how to affect our country 's economy as well as the influence degree presently. There is no exchange rate system suit all national and all times, this article thinks whether the exchange rate system have the effective regulative function as the future currency regulation target to our country economical development, analyzes our country in this supposition the relevance and the sensitivity of total output to different exchange rate system.Because declared the exchange rate system of a country possibly has the very big difference to implementing exchange rate system, this article according to the exchange rate system which our country implements to study the exchange rate system and the total output. The article has studied the influence before the reform and open policy, the key explanation started after 2005 exchange rate system reform the managerial floating exchange rate system has a more remarkable influence to the total output compared before.The article first summarizes the predecessor's classification about exchange rate system, finds out China's exchange rate system in fact only has changed once. It also finds that exchange rate system has something to do with total output through dummy variable analysis. Because the actual effective exchange rate is a good target in the research, the article uses the actual effective exchange rate reflect the influence exchange rate system leaves to the total output.After analyzing the influence transmission mechanism the author uses a theory frame. On this frame, the article makes two stages regression and compares. It takes the threshold by July, 2005, uses cointegration method to analyse the influence RMB actual effective exchange rate act to the total output. Then it uses VEC to discuss the short-term dynamic mechanism.The conclusion is : the exchange rate and the total output have positive correlation, the function exchange rate depreciation leaves to the total output is the expansion, but not the contraction. and vice versa.; Regardless of long-term or short-term, the influence RMB actual exchange rate change leaves to the total output all is relative quite weak.But the pegged exchange rate system before reform has limited influence in the long-term and short-term, after the reform the exchange rate system is very effective in the short-term and a comparative larger long-term effect than before.