| A nation (region) mainly has two ways to carry out the economy growth: one is to increase the input, expand large-scale; two is to raise the whole main factor rate of output. But current China mainly still passes the increment input (e.g. fixed assets investment) to arouse the economy growth. This kind of throws in brief thick to put an economy growth method, disadvantage in promoting economic balanced development in Chinese district, can't basically resolve the Chinese economic structure to be out of the balance problem. Expect behind in 80's, the economy growth theories of the bio-chemical inside the technique emphasizes the economy growth that the motive force is a technique progress, take the whole main factor rate of output exaltation as the key that an economy of the marking increases the way realization would be the technique progress, the research and developments of the theories field got the approbation of economic fulfillment in all countries.The country takes the strategy to develop the old northeast industry. It is an opportunity for three provinces of northeast to get a new round of the economic growth. But the new round economic growth of the three northeast provinces can't continue again to throw in brief thick to put an economy growth method, to look for with the whole main factor rate of output exalting for marking an economy increase. So the exaltation of the contributive ratio of the northeast three province scientific and technological input to potential output, to promote three province economies of northeast new a fast growth, carry out an economic growth method contain important meaning.This paper puts forward in keeping with the northeast three provinces economic development, with the correction of the endogenous economy growth model, according to Romer and Lucas put forward the endogenous economy growth theories. We study technique progress within the production function subdivide, and think the technique progress mainly from the manpower capital and with the R&D of input cause. In this paper, Measure to calculate research and the R&D, this main factor of scientific and technological input detailed potential to the northeast three provinces of the contribution rate that output, and carry on more analysis about the northeast three province researches and the contribution rate of the R&D. We know that the Liaoning province development devotion to the contribution rate of potential output is biggest from the result of measure. At the time of developing, the old industry base of northeast actively, we should develop the district direction mechanism of scientific and technological input well, the reasonable installs three province manpower, material resources, the financial power resources of northeast, exertive district advantage. Progressive advantage of full exertive science and technology of Liaoning, become the advantage with Jilin and Heilongjiang to repair with each other, by scientific and technological progress to draw on a great deal of investment and special policies at the same time, promote three provinces formation of the advanced productivities of northeast, arouse three economic industrial structures in the province district of northeast excellent to turn and upgrade, push the fast development of old industry base of the northeast, the northeast create the superior quality district economy in the northeast three province.This paper discussed the development grain of the economic growth theories in chapter 1. To do the research of the economic growth, can carry on from the different aspect, thus become each economy growth theories that lays particular emphasis on. Increase to the modern economy to re- consider theories, derive from so-called living growth outside and inside living the difference between growth, namely exogenous economy growth theories and endogenous economy growth theories. The exogenous economy growth theories to think that the economic growth is the technique progress push; But the endogenous economy growth theories then try to progress technique bio-chemical inside the factor to explain the economy growth, the representative's model have: AK model, Outside model, and R&D model. At last, we make an overview about the issues of the endogenous economic growth theories and latest theories.We make the estimate to the northeast three provinces of potential output in chapter 2 in this paper. First, we introduce the estimate of potential output, and then introduced the estimate method for the potential output. In substantial evidence study realm, the estimable method for potential output mainly is divided into two major types: The economic structure relation method and covariance analyze the trend method. The method of the economy structure is to build up relating to the foundation in the certain economy up of, under certain stipulation condition, establishment main factor devotion with output of relation, thus to latent output to do to estimate, the representative's main method have: Okun's method, output and capital ratio method, factors demand function inverse method, and production function method. The trend statistics of the economic relation that the analytical method takes no account to change to measure, adopting various covariance and calculating the technique, picking and getting rid of producing the medium palliation composition physically, the trend value that get to produce physically, estimate with this potential output. The trend statistics analytical method includes three kinds: the linearity trend method, peak value trend method and single variable filter method. In this paper, we particularly discussed the method of HP filter. HP filter method is a kind of segregate method of time series in the state space, and its element is to estimate the trend value of the output through minimized the fluctuation of the actual output and the whole trend movement of the sample. HP filter method is very adaptability and flexible, and be used very well among the nations. In this paper, we take the method of HP filter to do the estimate of the potential output of the northeast three province. And do the comparison analysis to economic motion of the northeast three province.We establish modified production function in order to add the factors of manpower and R&D into the production function, according to the endogenous economic growth model. In substantial evidence study, we find that the input of manpower and R&D exist very strong relativity, and take account the limit of the amount of sample, we only add research and the R&D to the production function in the substantial evidence in this paper. Then, we measure the devotion of the factors in the model. Meanwhile, we use the everlasting inventory method to measure the northeast fixed capital save quantity. The adoptive estimable method is similar to Yang in this paper, then use three fixed capital formation of provinces 1978s of northeast in addition to starting the capital to save the quantity with the beginning that 10% is three provinces of northeast. Using the GDP even reduces the index number to invest to carry on to each year even reduce, we take the economic depreciation rate 9.6% that calculated by Zhang Jun, etc. Labor force with include unemployed at inside of three province personnel's numbers of northeast to measure. We measure the R&D input by GDP even reduce the index number. We will get more accurate and reliable from the potential output of the northeast three province to measure the input factors.The main purpose of the paper is to do compare study to the northeast three province scientific and technological input to the contribution rate of the potential output. So we take the panel data model to do substantial evidence research. The panel data model and examinations develop the quicker quantity economics branch in the last few years. The panel-data mean that same piece faces the unit data to gather up to not meantime segment ascend of prognosticate the value again. We use panel data to construct model including three kinds, which are admixture estimate model, fixed effect model and random effect model. The examination problem of the panel data mainly has two type: one is an enactment problem concerning the panel data, then aim at four model POOL, SUR of the panel data that front put forward and fix effect, random effect; two is the examination that the mistake establishes the problem, in examine model whether have the square related sequence, difference bad etc. We emphasize to take into the discussion to the first circumstance in this paper. We establish the random effect model to the northeast three province is suitable by the examination of the panel-data model setting type.At the last of the chapter 3, we measure the contribution rate of the northeast three province scientific and technological input to the potential output. We get the contribution rate of the capital, manpower, scientific and technological to the northeast three province potential outputs are: Liaoning, 27.79%, 3.69%, 20.49%; Jilin, 27.94%, 3.04%, 15.74%; Heilongjiang, 24.81%%, 3.68%, 13.78%, according to the data announced by statistical year books about northeast three province and Chinese scientific and technological statistical year books. From the result of measure, we know that the contribution rate to the R&D to the potential output of Liaoning province is biggest, so at the same time to actively develop the old industry base of northeast, We should develop the district direction mechanism of scientific and technological input well, the reasonable installs three province manpower, material resources, the financial power resources of northeast, exertive district advantage. Progressive advantage of full exertive science and technology of Liaoning, become the advantage with Jilin and Heilongjiang to repair with each other, by scientific and technological progress to draw on a great deal of investment and special policies at the same time, promote three provinces formation of the advanced productivities of northeast, arouse three economic industrial structures in the province district of northeast excellent to turn and upgrade, push the fast development of old industry base of northeast, the northeast that create the superior quality three the province district economy.In chapter 4, we put forward the policy suggestion according to the compare analysis of the contribution rate of input factors to the potential output in the production function. Among them, the influence of scientific and technological input to the potential output in Liaoning is biggest. In future, under the new round of district competition, facing the rigorous challenge of coming from the domestic and international market, the science and technology just increasingly become the district comprehensive decisive factor that real strengths competition. Therefore, the old industry base of the current northeast needs to pass the competition ability of strengthen science and technology innovation exaltation district, quick conversion of the northeast science and technology advantage of the old industry base for push the old industry base to develop of strong inside motive, old industry base of the formation northeast with the innovation drive for basal new comparison advantage. |
PDF Full Text Request