The RS-DST Model Study Of Oil Exploration Risk Evaluation

With the success of the three major petroleum company listed abroad, people attention economic value and oil risk evaluation which is related better. But in the past,people just attach importance to the geological risk,while neglect the economic,technical,financial risk evaluation which is unfavorable to the impersonality controlling cost and risk and to the science decision., In recent years, decision-makers high attach importance to the implement of the oil Exploration risk evaluation, which has already become the research emphases and research hotspot of the oil economic evaluation work.On the basis of forefathers' research results, this article has carried on more systematic research on the oil Exploration risk evaluation. Firstly, the thesis summarizes home and abroad research actuality of the oil exploration risk, finds out the shortage and difference and points out the way of further development Secondly, summarizes characteristic of the oil investment, designs the oil Exploration risk index system, and based on attribute importance of rough set to filter index and according to the evaluation of the traditional oil exploration risk methods, the article put forwards the RS-DST method, and designs the RS-DST evaluation model.Finally, regarded ten prospects of kuqa foreland basin,north of tarim as the example, the article actualizes application analysis. The result of study indicates that the oil exploration risk evaluation model realizes the research aim of the takes on stronger application value.Main conclusions derived from the research are:(1)According to the angle of system theory, The thesis designs oil risk evaluation index based on Rough Set.The index system is not only applicable to home oil exploration,but also applies to abroad.(2)Through the comparative analysis,combining with the RS and designer's experience to confirm the integration weight,that is to say, integrate the attribute importance educed from large numbers of datas and the subjective weight,which achieves the unify between objectivity and subjectity.(3)The thesis apples RS-DST method to oil exploration risk evaluation. RS threoy solves the problem of the more items decision effectively, and avoid subjectivity weigh problem of other optimize models; DST threoy achieves basic probability distribution and qualitatives. The RS-DST offers new orientation of science decision-making.