Application Of The Option Theories In The Electricity Investment Decision

The definition of the electric power market is extensive, mainly including three sub- markets: a market generating electricity, a market transmitting and distributing electricity and a market using electricity. The market generating electricity means to a market that a business enterprise generating electricity directly supply power to the business enterprise supplying power.With the continuously process of the reform in the electric power market, the reform of the generating electricity market is also an irresistible trend, having already started practicing "dividing it into the factory and the Grid ,competing price to the Internet" . The competition mechanism is introduced to the link of the generating electricity, therefore, the monopoly is broke and a competition market is formed. The competition in the generating electricity companies make each power station undertake more risks and each generating electricity organize production to maximize themselves profits. Therefore the investment decision of the business enterprise generating electricity has the important realistic and academic meaning under the situation. The research ,aiming to generating electricity link, about the generating electricity market is becoming a hot problem of the electric power profession gradually.The main research contents of this thesis includes the following six parts:( 1 ) This thesis analyze the monopoly background in the electric power industry .Combining the economics theories, it also analyze that the superior install of the electric power resources is hard to carry out in a monopoly market. The competition mechanism of the electric power market is needed to recover.(2)According to the policy and environment of the current generating electricity market, this thesis analyzed that the indetermination and the risk in the market are all increasing, following with the implement of" dividing it into the factory and the Grid ,competing price to the Internet ". Under the indetermination condition, a new power investment decision method is needed to build up.(3)The method used for assuring the investment decision has many ones currently. This thesis, aiming to the blemish and shortage of the methods such as NPV and the real object option etc. existing in the investment decision of generating electricity, use the thought of stop and construct the option model based on The Real Object Option. A method is put forward to compute the best investment boundary. The best boundary problem of the electric power investment decision within this model is solved.(4)Take a generating electricity factory of Basic load for example, the substantial evidence is carried on . Carry on a static state analysis of a few parameters and explain economic meaning.(5)According to the capacity of generating electricity, the power station can be divided into the following three kinds: Adjust power station, Basic load power station and waist load power station. This text analyze the best investment boundary of each type of power station.In the end, combining with the above research of the best investment boundary of a generating electricity factory, this thesis makes some conclusions, which can be provided to the generating electricity factories to draw up the invest strategy.