Investment Risk Evaluation Of Power Plant Under Bidding Mechanism

The Market-oriented Reform of Electricity Industry results in that the power plant enterprises have to face the risk independently. It is crucial for power plant enterprises to understand and cope with risk caused by bidding mechanism.This article emphasizes on the quantitative study of the relationgship of uncertainty in investment and the risk, and creatively proposes a method that uses Monte-Carlo method in the combination of option value and DCF risk evaluation. The investment risk of power generation project is thoroughly studied by using qualitative, quantitative analysis and calculation example method, so that the investors can have a more valuable decision foundation to rational investment. Firstly, this paper introduces and analyses the investment risk of power generation projects in electricity market based on the electrical system reform and the investing features of power generation industry. Then, takes cash flow table of project finance as the prerequisites of simulation analysis, binds option value, views economic situation related factor as analyzing variables. The above method is practical. Finally, this dissertation describes the Monte-Carlo simulation analysis process in detail, and uses a coal power project as an example to complete the description. The simulation of crystal software makes the evaluation more practical.