The Research Of The Market Discipline Of Subordinated Debt Of Commercial Banks In China

Many foreign academicians have done much work on the market discipline of subordinated debt of commercial banks from theoritical and empirical analysis. The consistent conclusion of them is that subordinated debt's market discipline is significant and effective when the government's recessive guarantee is not exist. But as they discuss the market discipline of subordinated debt, they all first assume theissuer-commercial banks-and the whole financial system withmarket economy system as a matter of course; Second, they haven't theoretically specifically researched the aim function of the market discipline and its way on how to realize; Third, the main view on market discipline of subordinated debt in domestic is that the market discipline is not exist or significant but there is lack of support of empirical analysis for thisSo my analysis begin with necessary condition of the marketdiscipline of subordinated debt-the condition of the institutionalbackground of market economy from the marco view. My primary opinion is that our main commercial banks have founded the market discipline mechanism with the significant change of external macroeconomic environment and internal microeconomic performance. Then I theoretically analyse out that the aim function of the market discipline and its way on how to realize based on the theories of motivation. And then I take advantage of the data of elementary issuing market to make empirical analysis on the pre-market supervision and post-market supervision of subordinated debt of our commercial banks based on the fomer theoretical analysis; The last is the conclusion of my empirical analysis and some policy suggestions.The conclusion of my empirical analysis are as follows:The analysis of multi-linear regression of spread-risk model shows that debt investors' post-market supervision effect is not exist, but the issue decision probit model of pre-market supervision effect acted on the issuer is existed significant. The un-integrality of the subordinated debt's market discipline from our commercial banks shows that we should set up standardizational and international disclose criterion of information and improve the efficiency of the risk information reflection of the debt market.Because of the limit of the data, I just only empirically analyse the supervision effect by the elemantory data. I haven't empirically analyse the influence effect, which is the lack of this article.