| In the market of fast variety, the competitive advantage of enterprisedepends on the strong sale ability. But for obtaining big sales quantity, theenterprise has to be accurate to hold the pulse of market. Predicting is thepremise and foundation of the sales and market plan. Especially for theenterprise which be placed in the trade with furious competition and fastchanging, it is important to make predicting well. The Chinesemotor-assisted bicycle industry is being placed in the early stage ofbooming development currently, the market is unsteady and sales quantitychanges greatly. The development of factory was subjected to beimpacted. And currently most of the motor-assisted bicycle is privateenterprise, their funds are not quite strong, they can not endure thepressure of high stock, therefore, the enterprise needs accurate market andsales forecasting urgently to guide production management.This thesis discussed the market and sales forecasting problem ofenterprise in according with the concrete sale circumstance and data of aprivate enterprise. Firstly, elaborated the basic concept and developmentbackground of market and sales forecasting systematically, brieflyintroduced the position of market and sales forecasting in the businessenterprise. Secondly, it thoroughly analyzed the development of domesticmotor-assisted bicycle industry, and combined the historical sales data tomake use of linear regression, two curves model, seasonal fluctuationestimate model and etc. With these estimate model and methods, itpredicted each kind of product of that company and carried on salesforecasting analysis, and put forward constructive marketing strategy.Thirdly, it made use of the combination estimate model, artificial nervenetwork model and etc to improve the sales forecasting accuracy and putforward feasible methods to improve the accuracy. End, constructed asystem for the sales forecasting work which insured that enterprise tomake their prediction scientific, regular and stable. |
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