The Framework Of Ownership-based Trade Statistical System

Under the development of economic globalization,the trendency of integration of trade and investment is steadily increasing,intrafirm trade is playing an increasingly important part in international trade.Trade surplus of one country may be originated from the exports of foreign subsidiary in domestic,and trade deficit may be also originated from the imports of domestic subsidiary in foreign.At present,the conventional trade statistical system which takes customs boundary as the statistical category,and takes residents as the statistical object doesn't really reflect the position of one country in international trade.Referring to the researches of domestic and overseas scholars,this paper tries to construct the framework of ownership-based trade statistical system.There are two theoretical models, which are two countries model estimated unilaterally trade,three countries model estimated bilateral trade. Based on the models mentioned above and some factors,such as MNC-related trade,service trade,entrepot trade and value added from entrepot trade,processing trade,gain from foreign and so on, this paper re-estimates the balance of trade in US and China.According to the conventional trade statistical system,US has unfavorable balance of trade,China has trade surplus and US-China trade is serious out of balance. With the framework of ownership-based trade statistical system,we find US unfavorable balance of trade is substituted by a huge sum of surplus.China becomes trade deficit and US-China bilateral trade balance is improved obviously.The results of econometric analysis show that trade deficit of China can promote the development of economy.Trade surplus in the United States explains exactly why US unfavorable balance of trade at present push economic growth.Only the trade statistical system based on the ownership can really reflect business relationship, economic status and trade benefit between countries.Finally,suggestions are granted to the authority on how to reconstruct the ownership-based trade statistical system in China.