A Comparative Study Of Trade Differences Between Traditional Trade Statistics And Ownership Perspectives

Under the background of deepening the division of global value chain,the traditional trade statistics system has been unable to adapt to the reality of intra-company trade dominated by multinational corporations,thus causing trade "statistical illusions",distorting the trade balance of a country and triggering a series of international influences.Therefore,it is particularly important to truly reflect the export scale and trade balance of a country.The statistical framework based on ownership can clarify the domestic and foreign components of a country's foreign trade in import and export,and restore the real trade balance of countries in trade.This paper firstly combines the background of deepening the division of labor in the global value chain to prove the significant impact of the direct investment of multinational corporations on the international trade balance from both theoretical and empirical perspectives.Traditional trade statistics cannot distinguish the intra-company trade of multinational corporations and cannot divest multinational corporations.The impact of direct investment on a country's trade balance.Then,this paper introduces the basic content of traditional trade statistics and analyzes its limitations,such as the neglect of direct investment by multinational corporations.These limitations can have a range of effects,such as distorting real trade interests,triggering trade frictions,and affecting a country's trade policy.Then,this paper introduces a statistical system based on ownership,details the basic ideas and characteristics of the statistical framework based on ownership,and builds a statistical model based on ownership.Secondly,the two trade statistics systems were compared and the traditional trade balance was revised.Finally,this article takes China and the United States as an example to re-examine the trade gap between China and the United States under international production segmentation.Through the specific data,the trade balance between the two statistical systems is compared and analyzed,and the reasons and conclusions of this error are summarized:Traditional trade statistics ignore the problems of intra-national trade of multinational corporations,and overestimate the scale of China's exports in the developing countries downstream of the industrial chain,underestimating the scale of exports of developed countries like the US upstream of the industrial chain.The trade scale and trade interests of the two countries do not match.Based on the ownership statistics,after excluding the export contribution of foreign-funded enterprises,the trade balance between China and the United States is far less than the trade balance under the traditional statistical system,and there are obvious industrial differences between the US direct investment in China.Developing countries only receive very little trade profit.In summary,the paper summarizes the enlightenment of the trade statistics system of ownership to China:China should improve the foreign trade data collection system as soon as possible;improve the foreign investment policy of promoting China's OFDI;make full use of the technology spillover effect of FDI to improve China's trade structure;Trade statistics based on ownership should deal with Sino-US trade frictions.