The Empirical Test Of The Correlation Between Factors Congestion And The Macroeconomics Fluctuations

The term of"congestion"was firstly used in transport industry, it was considered to be a phenomenon that excessive transport vehicle were input on transport, which causes the blockage and a declining transport capacity (D. McFadden, 1978). He considered the state of production factor congestion as a border state, which generally represented all phenomenon of a weak disposal capacity formed by improper collocation of production factor.Under the assumption of absolutely rational and complete information in classical economics and the principle of manufacturer's maximal profits, the collocation of resources will not achieve"congestion". Therefore, the researches and literatures of this area are relatively scarce. But in reality, the assumptions above are not incomplete. Under the state of short-term un-equilibrium, because of the lag of effective information of market resources collocation, even the distorted information, it is inevitable that the phenomenon of production factor congestion which represents the relative surplus of resource. With the deepening of understanding of the modern enterprise theory, economists have concentrated on this area.The existing researches have amply focus on the definition of congestion, the connotation of production factor congestion based on linear planning models, the relationship of production factor congestion and the production factor disposability, the relationship of the production factor disposability and uneconomic region and the measurement of congestion based on the definition of it, however, it is in defect of the economic connotation research of it.Also the existing researches have amply focus on the concept of congestion and the measurement of it, the existence of the excess production factor in the economic fluctuations and the quantity analysis of excess factor that held in economic fluctuations, however, it is in defect of the relativity research between production factor congestion and economic fluctuations.It is notable that doing research on production factor congestion for industry or enterprise. For manufacture enterprises, under certain technical condition, production factor congestion represents the improper input of the production factor quantity, which causes production stagnation and lower output. For manufacture industry, production factor congestion represents the general idle capital asserts and lower utilization. It is obvious that production factor congestion has the direct affect on synthesis efficiency of manufacture, so censoring production factor congestion of an enterprise is notable for it to well know its producing state,collocation efficiency of resource and efficiency of technical utilization. There out, the research of production factor congestion has the great practical guidance significance with the production,technique and competition level for a industry or an enterprise.This article, which is based on the relevant research results of predecessors, use the new research perspective and methods to do a deep research on the connotation of production factor congestion,the relativity between production factor congestion and economic fluctuations, which is made up of three sections that present connotation of production factor congestion,the hypothesis on the relativity between production factor congestion and economic fluctuations and the experiential test for the hypothesis.In the second chapter, through the expansion of economic region in traditional production theory, the paper find that both uneconomic region and weak disposability of production factors are the exhibitions of production factor congestion, the state of production factor congestion is the exhibition of factor composing points in the uneconomic region, and uneconomic region is the theory depiction of production factor congestion. The uneconomic region is formed by the weak disposability of production factors, and weak disposability of production factors causes the production factor congestion, which breaks the hypothesis of non-decrease output in the traditional production theory.Then in the immediate part, the paper get two basal production principle when the production factors are in the state of production factor congestion though the analysis which is based on the dissertation of connotation of the production factor congestion that is simply composed of two production factors(X1 and X2).1. The marginal production of factor X1 is positive, and the marginal production of factor X2 is negative, which is2. In the uneconomic region S1, the variety of the marginal production of factor X1 is positive, zero and negative in turn, which isAnd based on this conclusion, the paper proves that the iso-product curve formed by production factors input points in the state of production factor congestion is back ward bending, and educes the following conclusions.1.The factor substitute at the congestion state is invalid.2.The backward bending part of iso-product curve has an inflexion.The two conclusions indicate that the factor substitute of factors is invalid and substitute rate is positive in the uneconomic region. The curve characteristic of the backward bending part of the iso-product curve in the uneconomic region changes continuously in process of concave to origin,inflexion and convex to origin, it is obvious that this process is not the factor substitute process in traditional theory.In the third chapter, the paper amply discussed the hypothesis and research range of the relativity between production factor congestion and economic fluctuations through the two aspect dissertation of the relationship between production factor congestion and economic fluctuations and Fair theory, and based on it gave the hypothesis.Hypothesis: The generation of the production factor congestion and macroeconomic fluctuations is compact correlative, macroeconomics fluctuations and shock can lead to factor hoarding behavior, and the lead to the formation of production factor congestionIn the forth and fifth chapter, we test the hypothesis and do the empirical analysis. Before test the economy fluctuation hypothesis of factor congestion formation, first we should solve the problem of the factor congestion measurement, so this paper select the stochastic frontier method to measure the factor congestion. Then select Translog production function to build econometric model, and we get stochastic Translog production function frontier econometric model: ln y i =β0 +β1lnki+β2lnli+β3(lnki)2+β4(lnli)2+β5(lnki)(lnli)+εiεi =v i?ui, v i ~ N(0,σv2), v idenotes the influence from the stochastic factor on the production frontier, u i is the technical inefficiency. The two error terms are mutual independence .So now we can get the factor congestion based on the model estimated result and calculate expressions. This paper using the region industrial data in the interval of 1995– 2003, selecting industrial added-value as output index, selecting current capital annual average balance and the number of labor force as input index. Estimate on the cross-section data of every year, and get the factor congestion of every year.GDP not only measures the nation output and income in the mass, but also can measure the economy fluctuation and economy cycle as a whole. This paper pick up the cycle part of GDP serial to measure macroeconomics fluctuation. According to Chinese GDP data trait, we select H-P filter method to get the cycle part of Chinese GDP data as the macroeconomics fluctuation measurement.To test the economy fluctuation or shock is the cause of factor congestion formation, this paper uses the follow two dynamic Panel data regression models:Model 1: y it =βi+ηyit?1 +μxit?1+uitModel 2: y it =αi+η1 yit?1 +η2yit?2+μ1xt?1+μ2xt?2+εit y it , yit?1 ,yit?2 denote the i region factor congestion level at t,t-1.t-2 period; x t ?1 , xt?2denote macroeconomics fluctuation serial at t-1,t-2 period;αi andβi denote the fixed effect of the i region, u it andεitare the stochastic disturbance terms. In the model,μmeasures the influence of macroeconomics fluctuation serial on factor congestion level,ηmeasures the interaction of every period factor congestion level.We select GDP fluctuation serial as the explanatory variable, selecting every region factor congestion level as explained variable, then estimate the model 1 and model 2.From the estimated result, we find the t statistic-value of every coefficients are all remarkable, the F statistic-value of the model is also remarkable.The empirical research results above show, in the fluctuant market condition the manufacturers would select factor hoarding behavior according to the change of the market or economy condition, make the rational decision of factor congestion. So the empirical research results support the fluctuation hypothesis of factor congestion.