The Empirical Research On Impact Of Credit On Macro-economy

Funds is very important for a country to be more prosperous. Enterprises of the private ownership,especially, represent the subjects who need money. Banks such as commercial banks is the most important provider of money. So they are in charge of supplying funds, distributing money and influencing the economy of the country.Many scholars have talked about the problem that whether increasing the amount of the fund to the private enterprises can improve the condition of the country, and how to gather money to satisfy the need of a enterprise of the private ownership. Some of them believed that improving the quantity of the loans is a very effective way. There are some abroad commercial banks in our country since December of 2006 because of the regulations of the WTO. So here we talk about how to distribute the money of the fixed quantity between the enterprises of the state-ownership and the private ownership in this circumstances, and then make sure what is the best finance policy to make the finance market better and better .We collect the datum from the Yearbooks, including the GDP, the quantity of loans and credits, the rates of ROA, ROE and so on. There should be 400 datum at least to make the time series analysis, but because of the limitation of the funds to this research,we only select the important part of the datum, and then make the conclusion.Here we draw the conclusion by means of quantitative analysis, including the ADF test, the Granger causality test and the Ordinary Least Squares Estimates.First of all we base the discuss on the datum from years 1981 to 2004, and it is the focus that what is the better finance policy of distributing money to support the economy. Because of the assume we believe that increasing the amount of money to the enterprises of the private ownership is a effective way to make the economy thriving. Although raising the loans and credits to the enterprises of the state-ownership and the private ownership can both improve the GDP, the latter one is the better option. Because that once increasing one percent of the money to the enterprises of private ownership nearly equal in value to increasing two percent of the money to the enterprises of the state-ownership.In the second place, because that there are some abroad commercial banks can do Chinese business as Chinese commercial banks do, we would like to contrast the differences between the abroad commercial banks and the Chinese commercial banks in the financial indeces, and draw the conclusion aimed at increasing the amount of the funds.Here we discuss about that whether abroad commercial banks can mitigate the intense circumstances in which the enterprises of the private ownership need the funds eagerly, and is it a chance or a risk for our commercial banks and the economy of our country to accelerate the access-pace of the commercial banks of other countries. We talk about these problems also by means of quantitative analysis, and conclude that abroad commercial banks are more prosperous than the commercial banks of our country, and they have the ability to supply funds to the enterprises of the private ownership.So increasing the quantity of the money to the private enterprises and promoting the commercial banks of abroad countries are advantageous to the finance and the economy of our country.