Study On Evaluation Of The Rural Credit Cooperatives' Operating Risk

Recently, because of institution, history and their own management, the rural credit cooperatives have some operating risks, such as operating environment risk, liquidity risk, operating risks, and managing risk and so on. The existence of these risks is not conducive to the development of the rural credit cooperatives,and hinders the development of rural economy and impede the construction of the new rural and harmonious society. To solve the problems of the operating risks, basing on the consultation and analysis about the vast amount of related documents at home and abroad and interviewing experts concerned as well as on-the-spot investigation, guided by the theories such as risk-management, system theory, evaluation theory, using systems analysis, contrast analysis, cause and effect, model analysis and so on, this essay makes a thorough and systematical study on the operating risks of the rural credit cooperatives from the following aspects, such as the risk characteristics and status, formation and conductor, indexes and model building, prevention and control and so on.Accurately grasping the generation and conduction mechanism of operating risks is the basis for the study. Basing on the features and the situation of the operating risks of the rural credit cooperatives as a starting point, using systems analysis, chart analysis and the cause and effect analysis, this essay systematically analysis the operating risks of formation and conductor mechanism of the rural credit cooperatives from the external environment and the internal management. The conclusion of the study indicates that the uncertainty both from the external environment and internal management leads to the operating risks of the rural credit cooperatives.One of the focuses of this essay is making a scientific and rational system of evaluation indexes. Basing on the analysis of the predecessor's research, this essay puts forwards the design indicators of"theoretical analysis, expert advice; survey analysis, statistical classification; amalgams adjustment, gradually improves";Basing on the study of the characteristics of operating risk and the formation mechanism, this essay designs the theory indicators according to the design flow indicators of"the evaluated objectsâ†'the purpose of the evaluationâ†'the content of evaluationâ†'the elements of evaluationâ†'the indexes of evaluation"; According to the theoretical index system, investigating the actual value of the rural credit cooperatives in operation, using cluster analysis system to remove greater relevance indexes, we obtain the empirical indexes system; By comparing the theoretical and empirical indexes indicators and extensively soliciting opinions of decision analysis, regulatory authorities, academics and other relevant experts, we finally obtain the useful indexes system. Research shows that the operating risk evaluation index system of the rural credit cooperatives include direction of operation, capital adequacy, asset liquidity, asset security, profitability and management capacity in six aspects of 13 specific indicator.Constructing the appraisal model is the core of this paper. According to the flow of appraises and the fuzzy synthesis appraisal principle, it has established the model of the rural credit cooperatives'operating risk. Using the expert's score to definite the weight of the indexes, Using analysis hierarchy process determinate the weight of criterion level; at the same time, judging the sole factor belongs to no risk, the attention risk, smaller risk, bigger risk and serious risk of five risks subordination which use the step-style method of he membership function to solves the question that risk assessment is too solely and absolute; next, using the simple matrix multiplication to obtain the value of the rural credit cooperatives'operating risk. Finally, taking a rural credit cooperative in Tai'an as an example, using the evaluation model we get that the integrated evaluation's level evolutes H is 1.5515, and the figure shows that this rural credit cooperative is in the attention risk's state. Within this total, the operation's direction is the attention risk, and Capital adequacy and the liquidity of assets are normal. The security of assets is the smaller security, and the profit-making is in a serious risk level, and management's capacity is the attention risk. Guarding and controlling of the risk is the foot spot of the studying. Taking a rural credit cooperative of a Tai'an as example, using the model which is established in this essay which appraises its risk, and produces the guarding and controlling suggestions. The research indicates: the rural credit cooperative had already at the attention risk, the asset security and earnings are the key focuses which affect the risk, and it needs to strengthen internal management and exterior supervising and managing department supervising and managing of the rural credit cooperative, the increase government finance subsidy and the tax revenue preferential benefit to control the risk further worsening.The study in this essay is only the preliminary achievement and the base for further study of the complicated systematic- Research on monitor indexes'system and early warning system of the rural credit cooperative operating risk in our country (70473052), which is one project of state natural science funds.