An Empirical Analysis On The Relationship Between Export/Import And GNP In China

The impact of foreign trade on economic growth has come into an important issue for the academic research since World War II. But many studies are concentrated on the influence of export on economic growth. However foreign trade includes both export and import. It is necessary to research the effect of both import and export on economic growth.Viewing from a new sight, the essay analyzes four variables of economy. Trough the method of Co-integration Test, it researches the relation between import/export trade and GNP. The research and result refers the currency supply, inflation, exchange rate and so on. It is useful to clearly understand the relation and relative status among the macroscopic variables。This dissertation comprises seven chapters.Introduction introduces the purpose of selecting this topic, area and methodology of research.Chapter 1 reviews relative literatures on the effect of import/export on economic growth, and gives summaries of them.Chapter 2 researches the relation between import/export trade and GNP systematically. It establishes a theoretical model basing on both the economics principle and the virtual fact of our economy.Chapter 3 is an important part of this dissertation. In this chapter, advanced econometric methods of time series analysis as co-integration test have been adopted to testify the impact of import/export on China's economic growth.