An Empirical Study On The Influence Of Ruble Exchange Rate Fluctuation On Russia's Import And Export Trade

Since the outbreak of Ukraine crisis,Russia has been sanctioned by European and American countries.In this context,the ruble exchange rate has declined,which has a very serious impact on Russia's domestic economic form.In this context,it is of great significance to make clear the actual impact of the change of ruble exchange rate on Russia's import and export trade,and to use economic theory to build an internal logic system to analyze the impact,so as to help Russia adjust its trade structure and find new impetus for its economic development through the international market.First of all,through the mechanism analysis of the influence of ruble exchange rate fluctuation on Russia's import and export trade,this part constructs the theoretical logic that the structure of import and export products determines the elasticity of import and export demand,and the size of the elasticity of demand affects the sensitivity of import and export scale to pri ce changes.Secondly,through the analysis of the influence mechanism,we will dig out the deep connotation between the exchange rate change and the change of Russia's import and export scale.Before the empirical analysis,we will fully discuss the relati onship between indicators and variables in the process of empirical analysis in theory,so as to ensure that the empirical test of this paper can have a strong theoretical significance and has a good effect on Russia's import and export trade The adjustmen t of industrialization and industrial structure brings better practical significance.Then,after clarifying the deep relationship between the scale of Russia's import and export trade and the exchange rate,the paper selects the vector autoregression mode l to conduct empirical test,to clarify the data of the ruble exchange rate changes and the current situation of Russia's import and export trade,and to elaborate the applicability of the vector autoregression model to this paper,and to clearly select the basis for empirical test.Finally,based on the results of empirical analysis,the background of industrial economy and international division of labor,which leads to the relationship between the current Russian import and export trade and exchange rate changes,is interpreted,and countermeasures are proposed.