Research On Guangxi Manganese Ore Resources Development Atrategies And Forecast Its Output

According to the Guangxi Manganese Ore resources characteristics, the status quo of the exploration, development and utilizing ,with comprehensive summarization of former domestic and foreign researches and with the knowledge of many subjects, such as Dynamic Economics,Resources Economics,Random Optimal Control Theory, Operational Research, and so on, the paper research on the strategies of the Guangxi Manganese Ore resources development and utilizing,predict its output. The paper take the Guangxi Manganese Ore resources reasonable disposition and the effective use as a goal. There are some certain significance and the instruction function to enhances the overall benefit of the Manganese Ore resources development use, and to promote the Guangxi Manganese industry sustainable development.Firstly,the Manganese Ore resources' characteristics of exhaust, scarce, uncertainty and irreversible,the resources demand undulatory property and reserves random are discussied,and the sustainable use is limited. Secondly, the paper is beginning with the basic principle of the exhaustive resources economics,that is Hotelling rules. In conditions of certainty,the paper's target is to achieve the gross profit maximization of the resources exploiter.Then the author establish the optimal exploitated strategy mathematical model of the Guangxi Manganese Ore resources, and solve the model by the Pangteliya maximum principle,and use this model simulation to analyze Guangxi Manganese Ore resources output.Thirdly,many uncertain factors are impacted on the Manganese Ore resources development, the paper's target is to achieve the maximization of earnings by established the random optimal control model of the Guangxi Manganese Ore resources exploitation, the author use stochastic optimum control theory to solve the model, analyze the influence factors to the most superior mining speed of Guangxi Manganese Ore resources,such as thunderbolt, exploration, market demand undulation and resources reserves undulation ,and so on,then study its development use strategies.Fourthly, the author establish the stochastic time series ARIMA model, with the original data of the Guangxi Manganese Ore resources from 1990 to 2005,and forecast the annual output of the Guangxi Manganese Ore resources from 2006 to 2020.Finally, the paper put forward the suggestions of the Guangxi Manganese Ore resources development use ,with unified the Guangxi economic society , the present situation of the manganese ore resources tax saves and development use.