Study On The Expressway Early-warning Index And Financial Model

The expressway is an important infrastructure of our country. It is a kind of special merchandise, which is not only public welfare but also a merchandise. Under the condition of socialist market economy, the expressway is built with the support of national financial allocations, bank loan, or other funds. It provides us service with charging (i.e. while offering good service to society and users, it takes the toll from the users in the the form of vehicle tolls). On this point, it is the loan that supports building the expressway. Great amounts of debt may cause the debt crisis; On the other hand, the financial management of the expressway company, which is affected by the macro economy of the country and management characteristic of its own, is monopolistic and its profit is stable. Its business performance is often more outstanding. It's easier to get funds from the capital market for these companies. But the investment is more enormous and the payoff period is longer, so companies also face the threat of various risk in the management process. In our country, the study on early-warning of financial risk is just on the beginning of its development and the financial administrative staffs' sense of risk is thin, so, the study on early-warning system of financial risk has very important realistic meanings.On the basis of consulting current research results both in China and abroad, I have studied and thought deeply for a long time. I researched the data of some expressway companies. Now the whole thinking of this text has come into being.First of all, I made deep understanding and analysis on domestic and international financial affairs early-warning research state as well as the trade background of our domestic expressway companies. After that, I have gotten a grasp in rough about development states and trade characteristics of expressway companies.Then, on the basis of index systems of expressway company performance appraisal in the enterprise performance appraisal regulations proclaimed jointly by Ministry of Finance, the State Economic and Trade Commission, the Ministry of Personnel and the State Planning Commission, I set up the early-warning index system of expressway in our country, taking the target and principle of designing it into considering.Finally, I forecasted and warned about the finance crisis of expressway companies by means of multivariable analyzing and estimating finance indexes, and deduced the early-warning model of expressway companies with the method of a diverse discretion analysis. Checked up with the demonstration of the Northeast-expressway incorporated company, the early-warning method works in effect.It is believed in this thesis that we should set up the early-warning system of the expressway with an emphasis on the multivariate, while taking the single argument as a minor index. It is hoped that we can find the depraved management condition of expressway companies and the reason in time. We should take timely and pointed measures to prevent and correct the depravation tendency, with the purpose of making companies develop healthily. I raised such a realistic issue and offered a method for settling it. This kind of method can be also applied to other industries to set up characteristic models.