Study On Financial Early Warning System Of Real Estate Corporation

As the constant development of economics in our country and the adjustment of consuming structure, the demand for house is increasing sharply. As a result, the number of companies which engage in real estate development is larger and larger. However, these enterprises bears high financial risk which are caused by lacking of experience and the irregularity of the market, the Debt-to-asset ratio of some companies reaches as highly as 70%, some even over 90%.In additon, taking the adjustment and control of the government's macro policies, the change of international economic environment and the tighter monetary policy into account, The potencial existance of financial crisis has become the initial problem which needs beening solved.This paper finds a way to set a system of financial early warning on the background of the real estate industries through a retrospect of the domestic and international research about financial early warning system. In this paper, the fiancial crisis is definited as the abnormity of the financial status of the company which has been excuted ST by Securities and Exchange Commission of China.I selected the financial data of the same period of 58 listed companies in recent 3 years as the samples and established a set of financial analysis indicators through empirical research. After the Normal Distribution Test, Mann-Whitney U Test and Correlation Analyse, I designed a model for financial early warning system by means of factor analysis, as well as the logistic regression model, and finished the Return Test.During the process of modeling, relying on programming language (Visual Basic 6.0), I got the program design completed and made the function of the model realised. In light of the limitations of the study, an improving direction was given out for further research at the end of the paper.