Empirical Study On The Real Estate Bubbles Of Chinese Real Estate Market

In recent years, the scholars launch fierce dispute around the problem whether there are bubbles in the Chinese real estate market. In my opinion, the main reason of the fierce dispute is that the real estate bubble detection methods that consider from different angles may produce different testing results, and some of them have not reflected the essence of the bubbles of the real estate. This paper that is on the basis of the thing that the domestic and foreign scholar knows to the bubbles of the real estate, explain that the essence of the bubbles of real estate is the excessive bias between its market price of real estate on the basis of gamble, rational and un-rational factors and its basic value. Proceeding from this basic point, this paper tests the prices of the real estate market of Chinese 35 main cities,by unit root and co-integration to exactly examine the existence of the bubbles of real estate.In the process of test, we can use the method above to judge whether there are bubbles of the real estate market of 34 main big and middle cities ,except Guangzhou because of that the market price of Guangzhou and theory price of it are not the same order integration. The test result shows that Taiyuan, Yinchuan, Shijiazhuang, Ningbo, Nanchang, Jinan, Chongqing, Urumchi eight cities have no bubbles in their real estate market, and there are bubbles in the real estate markets of other 26 cities. It proves that the existence of urban real estate market bubbles is a general phenomenon in China.This paper is divided into three chapters besides foreword and conclusion:Chapter one, literature review. Firstly, introduce the definition of estate bubbles of scholars all around the world, and excavate the essence of the bubbles of the estate from profound level. Secondly, introduce the method of detecting the estate bubble also give some evaluations and analyses to these methods. Finally, overview the Empirical Analysis of the real estate bubble.Chapter two, Methodology. Focus on the methodology of unit root and co-integration in this paper. Put forward the method of using income capitalization approach to calculate the price of the real estate while appraising the real estate price.Chapter three, the empirical analysis. Use the rent price of the real estate to calculate its theory price, and exactly test the market price series and theory price series of 35 big and middle cities in our country by the testing methods of unit root and co-integration. Draw the conclusion that the real estate markets of big and middle cities of our country generally have bubbles.