The Research On The Trade Effect Of CAFTA

From the 1990s, the regional economic integration has been the main character and the important tide of the world economy. Under this background, many countries have joined the bilateral or multilateral international economic cooperation. The regional economic integration has been the new impetus to impel the world economic development.As the biggest developing country in the world, China has the considerable economic strength now. It is exigent and important for China to participate in the regional economic integration in order to impel its foreign economy development. CAFTA is the first regional economy integrative organization that China joined formally. The fruit of CAFTA is very distinct. The trade amplitude of China and ASEAN in 2005 is 23.1%, and in 2006 is 23.4%. In 2006 the bilateral trade quantum of China and ASEAN is 160.84$ billion, and it is estimated that in 2007 it will achieve 180$-190$ billion.On the other hand, CAFTA is the first regional economy integrative organization that China joined formally, and most CAFTA members are developing country, and all countries of ASEAN are small. It can't forecast whether this kind of FTA that constructed by developing or small countries can bring well economic effects based on other examples. Therefore, many investigators are trying to analyze CAFTA's effects. The questions this thesis will study are: (1) The trade effect of CAFTA. (2)The effect on China after CAFTA establishes. (3) The policy that China should process in CAFTA.This thesis uses the theory of Customs Union, Free Trade Area and Intra-industry Trade to study the trade effect of CAFTA. It tries to analyze the trade effect of CAFTA and put forward corresponding conclusion and measures.This thesis is divided into six chapters. In the first chapter, it brings forward the research background, research questions and research methods, and it also concludes the researching actuality inside and outside. In the second chapter, it introduces the basic theories which are correlative with the thesis. These theories include Customs Union Theory, Free Trade Area Theory and Intra-industry Trade Theory. In the third chapter, it analyses the complementation between China and the ASEAN from the resource gift products and industry finished products first, and the competition between China and the ASEAN from the trade areas and trade products. In the forth chapter, it studies the trade effect of CAFTA from the point of view of customs reduction, comparative advantage and intra-industry trade. In the fifth chapter, it analyses the effects on China of CAFTA in the way of static state and dynamic state. The sixth chapter, which is the conclusion of the thesis, it puts forward the measures and advice for China.