A Weaker Dollar Impact On China - Asean Trade

In the case of post-crisis era, developed countries are undergoing weak economy and sluggish growth. As being the world’s largest economies, the United States has been pursuing a weak dollar policy, and trying to stimulate their economies by raising exports. This article hold the opinion that impact on the exchange rate should not be limited to bilateral trade between the two countries, but also analyze the impact of exchange rates on a country’s trade from the perspective of trade flows, to conduct a comprehensive study on the exchange rate and trade issues from a multi-level, multi-angle. In this paper, statistical description and comparative analysis from the the scale of trade, trade indices and industrial view of a weaker dollar are used to analyse the trade impact among China, U.S., ASEAN three.First, we study the impact of a weaker dollar on Sino-US from three dimensions: scale of trade, trade indices and industrial view. The scale of trade and trade indices of China Customs and the U.S. Census Bureau are analyzed by horizontal and vertical comparisons from2001to2011. The analysis shows that the scale of Sino-US trade is expanding, while the trade growth rate is declining; Trade indices on the Sino-US trade is declining, indicating a weaker dollar to a certain extent depressing Sino-US trade; industrial analysis found that China’s high-tech exports to U.S. increased, primary products and secondary is suppressed; China imports high-tech products from U.S. reducing. Intra-industry trade index showed that the Sino-US high-tech products trade is active. A weaker dollar plays an inhibitory effect on Sino-US trade to certain extent.Second, we research the impact of weak dollar on U.S.-ASEAN trade. From ASEAN as a whole, Member States and industry in three perspectives, the weak dollar on Sino-US trade diversion to ASEAN is not obvious; from the ASEAN member countries to analyze Sino-US trade to some ASEAN countries’shift, found that U.S. bilateral trade growth faster in Vietnam, and nearly two years of rapid growth in Indonesia and Thailand; industry analysis shows that the medium-technology industrial exports to the ASEAN increase, and imports shift from China to ASEAN.Again, we research the impact of weaker dollar on China-ASEAN trade. From ASEAN as a whole, Member States and industry in three perspectives, the weak dollar on China-ASEAN trade diversion or creation maybe exist. For ASEAN as a whole, China-ASEAN’s trade growth is high. China-ASEAN trade dependence, trade concentration increased, indicating that US trade was inhibited partly transferred to the ASEAN. China-ASEAN trade both trade substitution and trade diversion from the industry perspective. Intra-industry trade in the China-ASEAN trade shows trade creation effect and diversion effect.The conclusions of this study is inhibited trade between China and the United States is as to weak dollar, U.S. trade diversion effect is not obvious to the ASEAN, the rapid development of China-ASEAN bilateral trade, trade creation and trade diversion effect exists.