| The financial opening can change the government's excessively intervention to the financial industry and relax the limit to the financial organizations and the financial market. And it can also give an impetus to the economy development through the resource allocation effects, the competitive effects and the technology spillover effects and so on. But as the " double-edged sword", the financial opening inevitably brings all sorts of abuses. Those countries where the financial crisis had erupted have a lot in common, that they all relaxed finance regulation and implemented financial opening before the financial crisis erupted in five to ten years. This indicated that the financial opening can increase the possibility of the bank crisis, and has the side effect to the bank system stability. The bank system is the main body of our in China's finance system. So whether the banking is stable or not has a large effect on in China's financial security and healthy development. Although China has not had the large-scale bank crisis so far, the stable condition of bank system is not good. As the step of melting into the world economy is accelerate, financial opening activities such as interest rate marketable, capital account liberalization, and massive foreign banks'entry, is more frequent day by day. To sign and measure the bank system stability correctly, as well as to research the relevance between financial opening and China's bank system stability thoroughly have great practical significance for preventing and solving system financial risk, and also, keep stability and safety of China's financial system.In this article I has referred to massive associated literature at home and abroad, then the conception of bank system stability and financial opening was clearly definite, and the research on the factors which influent economic effectiveness of the financial opening and the stability of bank system was conducted. I has also elaborated the performance of some factors, which influent the financial opening and the bank system stability in our country. And drawing on the experience of the model international, I select the city's and countryside's individual saving increase ratio, RMB loans increase ratio, CPI, the consumption increase ratio and the investment increase ratio and so on as the core indexes. Through linking up the quantitative analysis of CMAXt with the qualitative analysis such as the supplied indexes, the historical events, and estimating the stable condition of China's bank system during 1994-2006 year, I has reached a conclusion that there are some instable factors in China's bank system.Finally, on the economic analysis base of stability relations between financial opening and the bank system stability, according to the practical condition of China's bank system, I combined experience from Demirguc—Kunt Model and Detragiache Model (namely the D-K-D model); I select the bad assets ratio, the capital adequacy ratio, the return ratio on assets, the asset leverage ratio of the four greatest state-owned commercial banks to assign values to the explained variables, namely China's bank system stability. Then I select eight indicators as explaining variables, such as the one-year deposit and loan interest rate, the real interest rate, the growth rate of the actually utilized Foreign Direct Investment, the ratio of the short-term foreign debt in foreign exchange, the debt ratio of foreign loan, M2/foreign exchange and the asset share of foreign bank to analyze the correlation between financial opening and China's bank system stability. The results indicated that there was a significant correlation between China's bank system stability and the real interest rate, the ratio of the short-term foreign debt in foreign exchange, the debt ratio of foreign loan, M2/foreign exchange, that is to say, there was a significant correlation between financial opening and China's bank system stability. |
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