Study On Finacial Crisis Early-Warning Of Listed Companies On SME Board

SME board is playing an increasingly important role in the national economy since it inception. It eases the financing problems of small and medium enterprises also contribute to its rapid development. However, due to the relatively small size and and relatively short development time of the listed companies in SME board, leading to more difficult performance evaluation, prone to insider trading, market manipulation and financial fraud and other acts, monitoring is very difficult. So how to predict the listed company's financial situation and take effective measures to resolve or prevent the financial crisis become a reality issue that managers are most concerned about.Research shows that cash flow break is one of the main reasons for the listed companys in financial crisis and the bankruptcy, this article attempts to establish a financial early-warning model for the listed companys in SME board from the perspective of cash flow.In this paper, the listed companies in the SME board as samples, by selecting the significant predictive power financial indicators in 18 as the indicator variables, establish the Logistic regression prediction model of the SME cash flow.First, conduct relevant research and elected the 18 cash flow targets which is representative; Second, development of relevant selection criteria and select the study sample, the sample companies in the financial crisis and the normal ratio of 1:1 in the number, selected as the research of 12 samples of normal based on data availability; Third, make the normality and significance test on the index system of cash flow using the sample data, obtained 9 indicator variables which is significant representative, in order to get rid the collinearity in the nine indicator variables, this paper made a factor analysis, obtain the indicator variables do not have a total linear and formed three principal components; Fourth, made the three principal components as variables, establish the Logistic regression model, and developed a criterion of the Logistic regression model; V. Verification of the model, the forecast accuracy of the test sample as high as 91.7% for model of 2009,but it may overestimate the predictive ability of the model use modeling this year's data, Therefore, this paper further uses are based on data of 2010,22 enterprises selected for the study sample (11 crisis enterprises and 11 normal enterprises) to further test the prediction results. The results show that the model prediction accuracy of these 22 rate of 86.4%, which illustrates the validity of the model in this paper.This study shows that the cash flow indicators are well represented in the study of the listed companys in financial early-warning model, the model based cash flow also has a high prediction accuracy. Finally, this article gives a detailed exposition of the problems in the application and the model limitations.