The Diffusion Index Analysis Of Commodity Market Cycle Of China

Diffusion Index(DI) is a method of empirical observation of the economy. Its basic principle is that the commodity market fluctuations activities through a series of transmission and diffusion, but the fluctuations in the cycle is not simultaneous. the basic approach of Commodity market forecast is using different economic indicators in the time difference, economic indicators will be divided into advance, consistent, lagging indicator, based on this advanced, consistency and lagging diffusion index will be structured, then analyze and forecast the trends of the commodity market fluctuations, to help make right and scientific guidance for the development of commodity market.Article selected the total retail sales of social consumer goods as the benchmarks of commodity market fluctuations, and then use the internationally accepted method to determine the HDI fluctuations in the economy benchmark date. And based on the reference date, the time difference using correlation analysis and peak corresponding law, and other scientific and quantitative methods, selected production, prices, wages, import and export taxes and the indicators on its advanced, consistent, lagging a division of the commodities market economy advanced, consistency and lagging diffusion index, and the diffusion index of volatility characteristics.The article in the preparation of the advanced commodity markets, consistent and lagging diffusion index, based on fluctuations in commodity market sentiment was analyzed and projections: The consensus diffusion index fluctuations in the economy and commodity markets were in various stages of the analysis found consistent good indicators of changes in commodity markets reflected the King gas changes; Through the advanced and lagging diffusion index fluctuations in the economy and commodity market benchmark date of advanced and found lagging diffusion index of sentiment points to the volatility of the commodity market boom Valley, the reference date are relatively stable or delay advanced period, as the lagging diffusion index, and the advanced pair of fluctuations in the economy turning point in the forecast and good judgment; through Construction VAR model, we predicted the diffusion index of January 2007 - December 2008, and consistent diffusion index value, then the advanced diffusion index of sentiment to point fluctuations in the economy and commodity markets Valley between the stability of the benchmark date of the advance, the article forecast from November 2005 to start a business expansion that will be continued until September 2008, and then with the current economic situation was analyzed, the current good economic situation in the market for the commodity the continuing round of business expansion has laid a solid foundation.Finally, put on several policy recommendations to extend the extension of the commodity market fluctuations.