Volatility Analysis Of China’s Fixed Asset Investment Prosperous Index And Its Forecast During The 13^th Five-year Plan

Investment plays a very important role in our national economy, which over the years has been responsible for the maintenance and promotion of sustained economic growth in our country. Investment Volatility has become the main reason for the economic cycle fluctuation in China. At present, China’s economic growth has been accelerating into a low-speed growth. Since our economy has entered the "new normal", due to the significant downturn in real estate investment and manufacturing investment, the growth rate of investment in fixed assets fell sharply. A direct consequence of this phenomenon is the result of investment in boosting the economy is gradually weakened. However, as the global economic recovery is weak and the lack of domestic demand, investment is still strong to maintain steady economic growth.Based on research methods at home and abroad over the prosperous index, selecting the accumulated growth rate of completed investment in fixed assets for the benchmark indicator, using the time difference correlation analysis, K-L information methods and the peak method of corresponding etc., this paper screens out the leading, consistent and lagging indicators of the fixed assets investment, and construct fixed assets investment climate monitoring indicator system. Using the internationally accepted composite index, the article synthesis the leading, consistent and lagging index of completed investment in fixed assets. Through analyzing the prosperous index, we find that the cyclical fluctuations of investment in fixed assets is largely affected by China’s macroeconomic policies. And the cycle of the fixed assets investment prosperous index gradually shortened, as in the same period the down time is gradual growth while the rising period of time is gradually shortened. And fixed asset investment prosperous index has a close relation with GDP index.This paper further uses the moving average method, exponential smoothing method and the auto regression method to predict the annual data of the investment in fixed assets prosperous index, and get the trend during the 13th five-year plan. The results show that the prosperous index of fixed assets in China during the 13th five-year plan is still not optimistic. Prosperous index is in a low stage fluctuations which compared to the 12th five-year plan the prosperous index has a modest rebound, but the recovery is very limited.Therefore, this paper concludes with a number of channels to increase investment in the country to ensure the steady growth of investment in fixed assets. Fully optimizing the investment structure to encourage the flow of investment to the field of key industrial sectors, strategic emerging industries and high-end service industry.