Hybird Forecasting Methods And Prediction Of Regional Export Trade

At present, the forecast has become an important subject. Along with the development of forecasting theory, it is popular to use nonlinear forecasting methods and combined forecasting method. But different things were affected by different factors, showing different development, and different combined forecasting model has different application conditions because of different construction mechanism. The fundamental purpose of forecast is to solve different problems, so it is very important role and significance to analysis different combined forecasting model, found disadvantages, choose suitable combined forecasting mode according to the development of things improve prediction accuracy. This paper seeks to make a suitable combined forecasting model on Chinese regional export trade and forecast, to provide a reference for regulation.In this paper, the author first analysis the relevant literature about combined forecasting and export forecasting,in this basic ,the paper proposed problems. Secondly, this paper analysis the model's construction principle of regional export trade, considered the features of kinds of combined forecast methods and characteristics of export trade, and chose hybrid forecast model to be the forecasting model of regional export. Then this paper constructed a hybrid forecasting model of region export trade based on VEC model and SVM method.The last chapter of this paper is empirical study. This chapter established a hybrid forecasting model of regional export trade in Hunan Province as an example, selected 1999.01-2006.06 regional export trade as an example, the first use VEC model, selected factors of the total industrial output, financial expenditure, the total retail sales of social consumer goods and the relevant exchange rate targets, the export trade of Guangdong Province, and other indicators, used the hybrid forecasting model that we constructed above, to give an non-linear hybrid forecasting model of Hunan Province's export trade, and forecasted export trade of on 2006.07-2007.06. The resulted showed that this non-linear hybrid forecast model is better than linear model, BP method and SVM method. At last, the paper forecast Hunan export trade's month volume in next year.