Regional Logistics Demand Forecasting And Empirical Research Based On The Shapley-Combination Forecast

Economic development of a region can drive a country’s and even the global economic development.Meanwhile,logistics,which originated in military logistics system is playing a strong role in safeguarding for a regional economic development.Logitics is also an aspect,which maintains a regional economic vitality and a source of corporate profits,and has been valued by the government and businesses.Logistics activities in different levels is designed and planned whether the government level or enterprise level,and logistics needs is the basis of these planning and design,as well as logistics is required to make accurate predictions prerequisite logistics policy formulation and logistics system planning and design.Analysis of the research status of regional logistics demand forecasting,based on which this paper describes the background and significance of the research.Combined with China’s logistics development history and current situation,relevant content links theory and regional economy,factors affecting regional logistics demand is analyzed, and in order to establish a system of predictive indicators,analyze the regional logistics prediction is feasible and necessary,but also shows the regional logistics demand and regional economic and business development are closely linked,and then introducing the basic logistics demand forecasting model qualitative and quantitative model,expounded the theory model and predict the regional logistics demand forecast steps and needed empirical study describes the multiple regression prediction model, exponential smoothing forecasting model and gray prediction model of three single forecasting models,combined with the relevant principles of game theory and the Shapley value method of combination forecast predicts a combination of three individual prediction weights determined,and the establishment of a combination of three methods of forecasting model.On the basis of these studies,Anhui regional logistics demand forecasting and analysis to verify the results show that this can be an ideal combination forecast predicted,but will also verify the Shapley value method in combination forecasting for determining the weights is more scientific,in order to ensure the accuracy of the regional logistics demand,the model is only suitable for making short-term forecasting,and long-term forecasts will produce large errors. According to predictions, he rise of Anhui cargo in the next three to five years in each year,indicating Anhui economy is steadily moving forward,which is China’s consistent strategy of central China,and further illustrate the feasibility of prediction.Finally, draw the main conclusions of this research,the Institute also proposed the existence of deficiencies and prospects for future research.