A Comparative Study Of Financial Warning Models Base On The EVA

With the development of our economy at very fast speed, complexity and uncertainty in economic area are increasingly prominent. In this situation, the cases of list companies being into financial distress are more and more because of the bad handling of financial risk. List companies want to be invincible in the changing marketing, realize sustainable development and must enhance consciousness and the ability to resist risk, establish and improve risk warning system. Therefore, it is a very important practical significance to establish financial warning system and monitor the financial situation of enterprises for the operators, investors, creditors, government or others.Domestic and foreign scholars have made a great deal of work about the research of enterprises financial warning. That provides a theoretical basis and useful reference for a follow-up study. But traditional financial warning models have some defects. It is the reason when scholars construct financial warning models the profitability guidelines tend to choose the traditional accounting profitability guidelines. But it has defects of itself, for example, don't consider cost of ownership and easily manipulated. Based on the analysis and draw on the basis of relevant research, it uses an empirical study of the method and a comparative study of Fisher model and Logistic model base on the EVA. Firstly, it chooses the 72 list companies of our countries as study samples and adopt their financial statistics from 2000-2002. Secondly, construct financial guideline system of 14 financial guidelines that responses the overall financial position of listed companies. Then it amends them using EVA and financial guidelines after amendment have T test and correlation analysis. Then choosing the net sales ratio after amendment, net assets yield ratio after amendment and core business growth ratio enter into financial warning models. Finally, it makes a conclusion which is better one after a comparative empirical study of Fisher model and Logistic model.Empirical results indicate the predictability of logistic model base on the EVA is obviously better than that of fisher model base on the EVA. One year before ST, discrimination accuracy rate of logistic model is 92.50%, beyond 10 percent, Fisher model is 82.50%. Two years before ST, discrimination accuracy rate of logistic model is 85.00% and Fisher model is 70.00%. This shows logistic model base on the EVA has better predictability than fisher model base on the EVA.