A Financial Pre-Warning Empirical Research On The Listed Companies In Tianjin

With the development of Chinese economy and the increasingly furious competition of market, as an independent economic entity the enterprise will inevitably face complex economic environment.Under the rule of survival of the fittest, some enterprises with poor management and week sense of crisis inevitablely have financial difficulties.Therefore, the research on the reason of financial crisis and the prevention mechanism of crisis appears especially important.To choose a suitable warning method and make an effective analysis can provide necessary information for enterprises and reduce or avoid the appearrence of financial crisis.The listed companies in Tianjin have their unique local characteristics and external environment.Therefore, to make a financial prewarning study on the listed companies in Tianjin can help the administrators of enterprises find and prevent financial crisis.Not only has important realistic significance and developmental significance for the listed companies in Tianjin,but also has a far-reaching influence on the economic development in Tianjin and our country.The article makes financial prewarning research on the listed companies in Tianjin using empirical analysis methods. It selects the multiple logical model to make prewarning research on the basis of discussing the advantages and disadvantages of various warning models.Then choose companies which have been special treatment as financial crisis companies,and choose matching companies on the principle of the same industry and scale. We choose twenty-four financial indicators and eight non-financial indicators according to the characteristics of the listed companies in Tianjin and the reasons of financial crisis.Then screen the warning variables using the Mann-Whitney U inspection and the relevant analysis and finally determine which indicators should be used to establish financial warning model.Next,we establish an early warning model of listed companies in Tianjin using the selected indicators and make a prewarning analysis on the financial situation of the listed companies in Tianjin in2011.The empirical results show that combining financial indicators and non-financial indicators to establish an early warning logistic regression model has good results in prediction.It can be used to make financial warning on the listed companies in Tianjin and affords reasonable ideas or methods for listed companies to avoid financial crisis.