| Driven by the technological progress, promoted by the users need, encouraged by the market mechanisms and also with the reduction of government control, particularly with the extensive application of computers and the rapid development of the Internet, the concept of traditional telecommunication system is changing profoundly and the new value-added services which derivate from the traditional telecommunication business are increasingly infiltrating into people's lives, leading human to accelerate their pace to the information society. With the development of telecommunication industry, the global value-added telecom services (including music, games and video) market is expected to breakthrough 43 billion US dollars in the 2010 and have a 42.5% annual mix-up rate growth compare to the level of 2004. In 2007, the number of fixed telephone users will be added 30 million to 380 million, representing 8.6 percent growth compare to the year 2006, in which the number of mobile phone users is expected to add 15.3 million to 1,01 100 million; By the end of 2007, China fixed telephone popularization rate has got 29%; mobile phone penetration rate has got 34%; China's telecommunications business volume will continue to maintain a growth rate of more than 20 percent and the annual total business volume has reached 1.44 trillion RMB. The communications business income has reached 640 billion RMB, there is a 10.2 percent growth compare to the year 2006. In the next five years, China's telecommunication industry will take more attention to the development of innovation and efficiency, also the transition from "big telecommunication country" to "strong telecommunication country". With the expansion of telecommunications business market size, value-added services will increase productivity to the industry and it has been widely recognized as a tool to improve the quality of the ordinary users'life, the market space will also keep expanding. The industry predicts that by 2010, the value-added services market is expected to reach the scale of 120 billion RMB and value-added services has become an engine which can pull high-speed development of the telecommunication industry. At the same time of the rapid development of value-added telecom services, it also faced with the obvious problems: win-win business cooperation model has not really formed; lack of business innovation capability; fraud and the unhealthy information are spread, the application development of the value-added services and customer needs are not in the same line. These problems have led enormous risks to the development of value-added telecom services inevitably.Telecom value-added service, also known as value-added telecommunication service, is a kind of additional telecommunication service by virtue of public telecommunication network resources and developed by associated technical equipment. It is an extension of the basic telecommunication services and the realization of its value makes the existing network increase the economic benefits. Project risk management is a process that project management organization plan, identify, estimate, asses, response and monitor the risk they faced. It is a scientific management method to achieve maximum safety and security of the project. The paper is based on the theory of value-added telecom services and project risk management, using PEST analysis and SWOT analysis methods to analyze value-added telecom services'external environment, development strategies, market, industry and business, identify five major risk factors of value-added telecom services such as technical risks, management risks, industrial risks, external environmental risks and market risks. The paper construct the value-added telecom services developing project risk evaluation index system including the objection layer, guidelines layer, main risk factors layer, sub-risk factors layer. Technical risk indicators include the irreplaceable of technical evaluation, the strength of scientific research personnel, technology complexity and technology maturity; Management risk indicators include the quality of the managers, telecommunication enterprise organizational structure, decision-making, staff incentive and restraint mechanisms ; Industrial risk indicators include the balance of industrial development, the industrial chain risks, the industrial integration risks; external environmental risk indicators includes policies and regulations, macroeconomic volatility, natural risks, financial risks; Market risks indicators include value-added telecom services market capacity, value-added telecom services market competitiveness, value-added telecom services life cycle.After the construction of evaluation system, the paper makes a comprehensive evaluation to the value-added telecom services developing project by AHP and fuzzy evaluation. AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) is raised by T.L.Satty in 1970s. As a decision-making tool which combined with qualitative and quantitative analysis, have achieved rapid development and widely use in recent years. It will decompose complex issues into hierarchical structure, and then analyze progress; It can deal with the subjective judgment by the form of number; It also deal with qualitative and quantitative factors, at one stroke interrelated and affiliation into an orderly structure of the pyramid-shaped tree, or a hierarchical structure model; rely on the expertise evaluate the relative importance of factors in the same level, with consistency and accuracy of test evaluation; Then synthesis in the hierarchical structure in order to obtain the important sort of the decision-making factors. Finally, the paper analyze the risk of China Mobile Jiangsu Branch CRBT service expansion project based on the AHP and fuzzy evaluation and concludes: the integrated risk of China Mobile Jiangsu Branch CRBT service expansion project is 4.406 between the region of moderate risk and low risk. It approaches low risk which means China Mobile Jiangsu Branch CRBT service expansion project's overall risk is low risk and the project can be implemented. China Mobile Jiangsu Branch CRBT service market competitiveness (weight 0.195), CRBT service industrial chain risk (weight 0.129), the quality of Jiangsu Mobile management (weight 0.105) are the biggest risk indicators. |
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