| At first, this paper analysis the characteristics of the operating housing market prices, we found that China's real estate have continuing upward trend but not yet experienced a complete cycles, the land price is more fluctuations than housing price fluctuations, changes in residential prices and the fluctuating price leased a reverse changes in property, prices rose significantly in regional of his characteristics and in the economically developed areas prices rose significantly, such as characteristics of volatile prices. Through analysis of China's housing price's operating characteristics and we found the special nature of our operation prices, as well as the reference point to consider the model of residential property prices, reflecting government land put in the administrative monopoly, the non-residential market, as well as capital-intensive effectiveness characteristics.In China's domestic market and the domestic price situation we has run the contours of a clear, the article will explore behind China's impact on the domestic price movements of factors. Including the process of urbanization on the impact of the real estate market, the population factor of urban real estate needs, the ability of real estate revenue effect of the price, Jian'an costs and the costs of land for housing prices, as well as funds for credit expansion that effect the price of real estate. In considering the factors in the process of combining data and the chart analysis, the impact of the residential market supply and demand key factors discussed in detail in an effort to seize the main factors detailed.Then I made a study of the model Panel Data based on the theoretical foundation and the operation characteristics of China's price. The choice of sample data and the construction of the model found, Simple two-dimensional region and its variable data analysis have a large measure of limitations for the price in this paper, and do not have a very good characterization of the variable impact on the overall situation. For this reason the Panel Data selected in this article include nine eastern provinces or cities, eight variables, the cross-section data and the time series data of 1999-2006.Based on the theory of supply and demand model, I construct both of the supply and demand model. At the same time, I selected accordingly model variables indicators: 1. Along with the increase of China's urban population and the continuous expansion of urban land use, I selected area built as a measure of the process of urbanization indicators. Combining the stability of China's sustained growth of GDP, the GDP is growing, Corresponding per capita disposable income will continue to increase, From the point of view of consumer psychology Short-term wage increase Most buyers maybe expect the increase in disposable income in future, so housing is the tendency of the current purchase. At the same time GDP as a macro variables, it can be used to characterize other current factor which can effect the development of the real estate market price. GDP per capita was chose to measure the current value of the earning capacity of the impact of China's housing prices in this paper. 3. China's administrative land supply made the land supply lacks flexible. The government monopoly and restrictions on the supply of land and the shortage of supply and demand at the same time are the China's characteristics. Considering the purchase of the land area of theoretical significance, it decreases with the price increasing at the same time by more embodies a demand factors, therefore made it as a administrative factor in the fluctuations of the model of domestic demand. 4. From the supply point of view of the residential prices, housing prices can be translated into concrete changes in the various components of the residential price changes。The intrinsic relationship between land prices, construction costs and housing prices decide that the price of land and construction costs can be used to measure o housing prices' long-term balance. Housing construction prices here selected to represent the price of land and construction cost variables. Real estate investment demand more money, working long period, credit expansion in large measure all of these promote the development of China's real estate industry, and provide a stream of cash flow. The model measured the real estate credit expansion on the supply model. Consider the non-validity of the real estate market, relevant variables from the time lag of the explanatory variable were used to build panel data model.Next, we do the empirical analysis of the eastern part of nine provinces, and establish both of the demand and supply flexibly model, as below:ln P=β0 +β1*lnS(?1)+β2*lnBuy(?2)+β3*lnINC+β4*lnHD(?1)+μln P =β0 +β1*lnM+β2*lnHS+β3*lnPC+μ, the model unchanged its coefficient but different intercept estimated, and we found that they are in the 5% level significantly, the results are reliable. And the following results give: First, the demand model, we measured from the perspective of the flexibility of per capita GDP, and built sales area, the purchase of land area to explain the prices. We can see the increasing impact of price in income factors, the estimated coefficient is 0.85, compared to the impact of prices, reflecting the sustained growth in GDP brought about the continued increasing in people's income, the growth of housing prices has been strong explained. From the purchase of the land area of the estimated coefficient can be seen the Government's administrative intervention on the impact of price bring up the fluctuations, the coefficient is estimated of -0.07, showed that the area of land put reduction will drive up real estate prices from built-up areas estimates of the coefficients can be seen that the process of urbanization is increasing on the impact of price fluctuations, the coefficient is estimated at -0.36, and built area of growth is declining, and the increasing demand for residential, the two intertwined, the supply can not meet strong demand, causing prices rose. Demand model can be concluded, revenue growth in the maintenance of China's real estate prices is a strong effect (the coefficient is estimated at 0.85), while the supply of land and the residential market demand for growth can be strong explain prices'fluctuation since 04.Secondly, in the supply model, we measured the housing construction prices, credit expansion, completion of land from the perspective of flexibility to the impact of the price, we can see the impact of price increases construction price, its coefficient is 0.69, more elastic effect, reflecting Since the beginning of reform and opening up, China's sustained economic development, the level of wages rising, steel cement price increases caused by the cost of housing construction has driven up housing prices constantly. Credit expansion coefficient estimates prominent real estate and capital-intensive industries as the special factor attributes to house prices rising as a pattern of the impact. |
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