Analysis And Management Of Bidding Risk For Power Generation Company In Power Market Environment

Firstly, this paper summarizes the situation of electricity market reforms at home and abroad, and introduces the research status of bidding risk for power generation companies, thereby, relative background theories of generation enterprise bidding risk are discussed, and on the basis of the theories, the hypotheses of this study are proposed. Secondly, based on relative theories of risk and risk management, this paper expounds the reasons of bidding risk for generation companies, and based on Crystal Ball, this paper proposes VaR and CVaR bidding risk evaluation methods with improved Monte Carlo simulation. Then, an experiment example is utilized to illustrate the bidding risk evaluation process, and the evaluation results of VaR and CVaR are compared. Sensitivity analysis is carried on for risk factors, and based on optimization theory and under certain risk constrains, the best offer price is obtained through Crystal Ball OptQuest tool, and countermeasures to lower the bidding risk of short-term are proposed. Then, strategies to evade bidding risk in the long-term are proposed. Finally, there are the conclusions of this paper.