| M&A plays a significant part in capital operation activities. M&A is not only important way for capital expansion, but also effective method for resource allocation optimization. After our country is entering into WTO, managing risks and financial risks with which companies in our country are confronted are increasingly improved. The M&A is one form of enterprise growth, and also is one inevitable trend following the development of global economic. In this environment, how to avoid and disperse these risks has become the discussed hot spot in the financial scope. Many practitioners favor the financial affairs early warning as an important step of the financial risk management.We consider that financial risk of a merger and acquisition company as a gradual course so that there should be some evidence or clues for us to predict the situation. In this study, it selects 65 M&A Corporations as samples in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market in the year of 2004. At last, it selects 6 financial indexes as discriminating variables. It applies the index of cash flow in order to find their discriminating effects, by using a score function with the Factor Analytic method from Statistical Analysis to construct merger and acquisition financial affairs early warning model in our country. Through 2005 and 2006 years' data confirm the scientific nature of this model, has the good distinction rate. Generally, M&A risk of Chinese Listed Companies in the first year is high because of the lack of proper strategic planning or the neglect of integration after M&A. Detailed, Horizontal M&A makes Chinese Listed Companies slightly stronger but Conglomerate M&A goes opposite, which accords with the theory of M&A basically.Finally, according to our country capital market characteristic, the international experience and our country national condition to analyze the present situation, this thesis proposes some feasible measures to guard and control enterprise the financial risk in M&A process. |
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