Enterprise Financial Early Warning Analysis

Financial crisis and early warning analysis has always been the key and difficult point in the field of business and financial management.The occurrence of financial crisis can be represented as a small probability event,and it can also be upgraded to a wide range of disasters in an industry,a country and even the world.Because of the regional and global financial crisis,the study of financial distress prediction has been paid much attention by the researchers and even the academic world.Focus on enterprises,how to deal with the economic recession and the erosion of financial crisis,timely identify and quickly capture the signal of financial crisis,and provide the necessary information for enterprise decision makers and stakeholders is a realistic problem which is worthy of further study.In this paper,we analyze the indicators of the financial crisis enterprise,use qualitative and quantitative,static and dynamic methods to reveal the financial situation deterioration signal,and predict the possibility of financial crisis.Firstly,we compare the study of the financial distress prediction at home and abroad,summarize the relevant theories,analyze the dynamic characteristics of financial crisis,point out the cause of financial crisis,and reveal the internal foundation of the financial crisis.Secondly,we set up a financial crisis analysis and early warning index system,and choose six traditional financial ratios that can represent the solvency,profitability and growth capacity of the enterprise,while introducing two cash flow indicators innovatively.Ultimately,we use AHP analytic hierarchy process to get the matrix model of financial crisis early warning,calculate the index weight of eight indicators.Using comprehensive fuzzy analysis method,it is concluded that we can quantify the financial crisis by testing the membership relationship of each indicator,and quantify the financial crisis.In this paper,we choose 30 listed companies of ST,and reveal the possibility of financial crisis through the trend analysis of 2014-2016.The results show that 87%of the samples prompt the possibility of financial crisis.The model created in this article is feasible,which can help enterprise decision-makers and stakeholders to effectively identify the financial crisis and identify its severity.As an important decision support tool,it has theoretical and practical significance.